After taking two of three from the Mets at Citizens Bank Park, FanGraphs gives the Phillies a 99.9 percent chance to win the NL East. The division could be clinched as soon as this week in Milwaukee, with some help, as the magic number is down to five. Despite some rocky stretches throughout the season, there’s little reason to doubt they’ll secure the division title—and possibly a first-round bye.
After three games against the Brewers, the Phillies head to Queens for a four-game series with the Mets this weekend, where they could very well wrap things up at Citi Field.
Where: American Family Field, Monday through Wednesday.
Pitching Matchups: LHP Ranger Suarez (12-6, 3.05) vs, RHP Aaron Civale (6-8, 4.57) on Monday at 7:40pm. RHP Zack Wheeler (15-6, 2.60) vs. RHP Frankie Montas (7-10, 4.49) on Tuesday at 7:40pm. RHP Aaron Nola (12-8, 3.62) vs. RHP Frankie Peralta (11-8, 3.75) on Wednesday at 7:40pm.
Series: The Phillies lead the season series, 3-0. The Phillies also lead the all-time series, 95-78.
Phillies Update (90-59): Barring a collapse, the Phillies are poised to lock up the NL East, with the Brewers and Dodgers on track to claim the Central and West, respectively. The real battle now is for playoff positioning, as the team with the third-best record among the division winners will be forced into the wild-card round. The Phillies currently hold a four-game edge over Milwaukee, and this series could go a long way in deciding who avoids that early round.
The Phillies swept the Brewers at Citizens Bank Park in June, meaning they need just one win in this series to secure the tiebreaker. A sweep in Milwaukee would stretch the lead to eight games with 10 to play, leaving the Phillies just three wins (or Brewers losses) from clinching a first-round bye. If they take two of three, the magic number drops to five. Lose two of three, and it rises to seven. But a Brewers sweep would push it to nine and shift the tiebreaker to the best division record.
As it stands, Milwaukee is 30-19 against the NL Central with just three divisional games remaining, while the Phillies are 26-18 in the NL East with four games in New York and three more in Washington still on the schedule.
Though the Phillies handled Milwaukee earlier this season, all three games were tight—decided by one or two runs, with one going to extra innings. And the venue could matter: the Phillies are 52-25 at home this year but just 38-34 on the road.
Brewers Update (86-63): The Brewers couldn’t complete a sweep of the Diamondbacks this past weekend, but still managed to take two games in Arizona, avenging last year’s elimination from the National League Wild Card round by the eventual NL champions. With the loss and a Cubs win, Milwaukee’s magic number to clinch the NL Central remains at three.
The Brewers wouldn’t be in this position without Jackson Chourio. The 20-year-old outfielder continues to amaze, hitting his 20th homer of the season last Thursday. He’s also swiped 20 bases, making him the youngest player in history to join the 20-20 club at just 20 years and 185 days old. It was close—two other players reached the mark in their age-20 seasons—but Chourio wins the tiebreaker by a matter of days, etching his name into the record books as the youngest ever to do it.
The Brewers wouldn’t be in this position without Jackson Chourio. The 20-year-old outfielder continues to amaze, hitting his 20th homer of the season last Thursday. He’s also swiped 20 bases, making him the youngest player in history to join the 20-20 club at just 20 years and 185 days old. It was close—two other players reached the mark in their age-20 seasons—but Chourio wins the tiebreaker by a matter of days, etching his name into the record books as the youngest ever to do it.
Notable Injuries: Phillies -- RHP Spencer Turnbull (shoulder) and OF Austin Hays (illness) are on the injured list.
Brewers -- SP Bryse Wilson (oblique), RP Nick Mears (forearm), OF Christian Yelich (back), SP Brandon Woodruff (shoulder), and SP Robert Gasser (elbow) are on the injured list.
What's Next: The Phillies will travel to Queens for an important four-game set with the Mets.