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| Bryce Harper has a .308 on-base percentage over his last 15 games. | CREDIT: Sam Ferguson |
It is that every day they fail to clinch makes the playoff plan itself harder to execute.
Thursday night’s 5-1 loss to Milwaukee left Philadelphia’s magic number stuck at two with three games remaining. But the damage extended beyond another wasted opportunity. Luis Arraez left with a sprained left ankle. The offense disappeared again. Zack Wheeler could eventually be needed Sunday rather than saved for Tuesday.
And now a nor’easter threatening the East Coast has introduced another variable into a final weekend already short on certainty.
This is what September pressure looks like when it begins consuming October.
The Phillies managed four hits Thursday, two each from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. They scored once and went 1-for-4 with runners in scoring position after going 0-for-12 in those situations Wednesday.
That made them 1-for-16 with runners in scoring position in consecutive losses to Milwaukee.
Andrew Painter gave them six innings of one-run baseball and struck out eight Thursday. The Phillies still could not capitalize.
The larger offensive numbers explain why.
Over their last seven games, the Phillies are hitting .212 with a .305 on-base percentage, .314 slugging percentage and .620 OPS. They have hit three home runs and scored 24 runs while going 3-4.
Even the 24 runs are somewhat deceptive. Thirteen came in two victories — seven against the Mets on Sunday and six against Milwaukee on Tuesday. In the other five games, the Phillies have scored 11.
“I think it’s more frustration than pressure,” Trea Turner said. “I think we know how good we can be. At times, we haven’t played to that standard. It feels like one thing doesn’t go your way and sometimes it’s here we go again.”
Don Mattingly did not avoid the other word.
“Yeah, we’re feeling pressure,” Mattingly said. “We should be feeling some pressure. I know I feel some pressure. It’s that time of year and you’re trying to win games.”
The Phillies still control their immediate fate.
“We’re in the driver’s seat,” Harper said. “We’ve got to win and take care of our business. We can’t really worry about any other teams or what they’re doing. We’ve got to keep going.”
But controlling the wheel is different from having a clear road.
Arraez’s injury created the latest problem Thursday.
He sprained his left ankle while attempting to avoid a tag at first base in the sixth inning and needed assistance leaving the field. X-rays were negative, and Mattingly expressed hope afterward that Arraez could play again this weekend, but the Phillies planned to reevaluate him Friday.
His absence, even temporarily, would remove the National League’s leading hitter from an offense already searching for answers.
And then there is the rotation.
Wheeler is supposed to be preparing for Tuesday.
That is the point.
The Phillies have positioned Wheeler for Game 1 of a potential Wild Card Series, with Cristopher Sánchez lined up behind him after making his final regular-season start Friday. But if Philadelphia reaches Sunday still needing a victory to secure its postseason berth, Wheeler could instead become the pitcher needed to save the season.
That would fundamentally alter the Wild Card plan.
Pitching Wheeler Sunday would take him out of consideration for Tuesday’s opener and force Philadelphia toward another Game 1 solution — potentially Aaron Nola, who last pitched Wednesday, or some other configuration involving the recovering Jesús Luzardo.
The Phillies have not announced such a contingency plan, but that is precisely the problem. A rotation that was supposed to represent their greatest October advantage could instead be rearranged because they were unable to finish the job in September.
Luzardo adds another layer of uncertainty.
He threw roughly 30 pitches in a bullpen session Thursday, his first mound work in nearly two weeks after dealing with left shoulder inflammation. He said afterward that he felt normal, and the Phillies expected him to face hitters if he continued responding well. But his last game appearance came Sept. 7, making it difficult to assume exactly what workload he could handle immediately in a playoff series.
And now there is the weather.
Rain and strong winds are expected to become increasingly problematic around Philadelphia this weekend as a coastal storm intensifies. Saturday carries a threat of rain and gusty conditions, while Sunday could be even wetter.
That does not mean either Phillies-Rays game will be postponed.
It does mean another complication has entered a weekend in which Philadelphia desperately needs simplicity.
The Phillies entered September believing their starting pitching could separate them from other National League contenders in a short postseason series.
Now there is a chance they will have to spend their best pitching simply getting into one.
That is the hidden cost of these losses.
The magic number remains two.
But the number of clean options keeps shrinking.
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