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| Zack Wheeler will start Tuesday's series opener for the Phillies against Milwaukee. | CREDIT: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images |
The Phillies have reached the point where qualifying for the postseason should no longer be the standard by which their final week is judged.
Barring a collapse, they will get in. The more important question is what happens when they arrive.
That is what makes this three-game series against Milwaukee different from another late-September obstacle. The Brewers come to Citizens Bank Park with a 98-58 record, the best in baseball, a franchise record for victories already secured and a two-game advantage over the Dodgers for the National League’s top seed.
They are not merely another playoff opponent. They are an audit.
Over the next three nights, Milwaukee will examine every part of the Phillies that could become problematic in October: a top-heavy offense, a vulnerable bullpen, an uncertain rotation behind its two best starters and a lineup that has too often asked its pitchers to operate without a safety net.
The Phillies enter the series 86-70 and four games ahead of Arizona for the National League’s final postseason berth. But they are also only one game behind both Chicago and San Diego in the wild-card standings. A productive final week could move Philadelphia past both clubs and secure home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series.
There is plenty left to win—and plenty left to learn.
The Phillies have spent this season becoming almost the opposite of the team they were expected to be. A roster built around Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and an expensive collection of hitters has survived because its starting pitching has been far more dependable than its offense.
Philadelphia ranks 27th in the majors with a 92 wRC+, a stunning position for a club with October expectations. Schwarber has supplied 45 home runs and 95 RBIs, while Harper leads the team with a .271 average and .382 on-base percentage. But too much of the offense remains concentrated around those two hitters.
If Harper and Schwarber do not produce, the Phillies too often become a lineup waiting for something rather than creating it.
Milwaukee offers the perfect contrast. The Brewers rank among baseball’s leaders in runs, batting average and OPS despite spending much of the season near the bottom of the sport in home runs. They score by extending at-bats, taking walks, running the bases and stringing together hits.
They do not wait for one swing to solve everything.
That difference matters because Milwaukee’s offensive style is designed to attack Philadelphia’s greatest weakness. The Phillies’ bullpen entered the final week with an ERA above 4.30 and ranked in the bottom half of the majors. It had already blown 23 save opportunities by the middle of September.
Jhoan Duran can shorten the ninth inning. The route from the starter to Duran remains treacherous.
Milwaukee is built to make that route feel even longer.
The Brewers can foul off pitches, force a starter’s count upward and expose the middle of a bullpen before the closer becomes relevant. A walk, a stolen base and a two-out single can be just as damaging as a home run. Against a Phillies team that frequently operates with little offensive margin, one extended inning can decide a game.
That places additional pressure on Zack Wheeler, who starts Tuesday’s opener against Dustin May. Wheeler is 13-5 with a 2.99 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP and 177 strikeouts in 150⅓ innings. He has allowed only 113 hits, the type of dominance the Phillies will need at the front of a postseason rotation.
Aaron Nola follows Wednesday against Logan Henderson. Thursday’s matchup remained unsettled entering the series, with José Urquidy among Philadelphia’s possibilities. Jesús Luzardo’s shoulder injury makes the back of the rotation one more issue the Phillies must settle before October.
Milwaukee has already shown Philadelphia how extreme this matchup can become.
When the clubs met in June, the Brewers won two of three and shut out the Phillies twice. Jacob Misiorowski struck out 15, issued no walks and allowed one hit in a 6-0 demolition. Two days later, Milwaukee blanked Philadelphia again.
The Phillies’ lone victory came in the middle game, when they collected a season-high 17 hits and scored five runs in the sixth inning. They needed nearly all of them to survive, 9-8.
That series offered three games and no sustainable middle ground. The Phillies were either incapable of scoring or required an offensive eruption to outrun their pitching problems.
October rarely allows either formula to last.
The Phillies need to show they can win the less dramatic way: six or seven strong innings from a starter, enough production from the lineup’s lower half to avoid stranding Harper and Schwarber, clean defense and a stable handoff to Duran.
The Phillies will not face Misiorowski in this series, but that does not make the test less meaningful. The postseason is not won solely by defeating another club’s ace. It is won in the innings between stars—when a fifth hitter must extend a rally, a reliever must protect a one-run lead and a defense cannot give away an extra out.
The Phillies’ final six games come against Milwaukee and Tampa Bay, two of baseball’s best teams. There will be no soft landing and no opportunity to disguise their weaknesses against an eliminated opponent.
That may be exactly what they need.
The Phillies are almost certainly going to October. This week is about something more consequential than securing an invitation.
It is about proving they belong once the doors close behind them.
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