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| Bryce Harper and the Phillies will host Tampa Bay this weekend at Citizens Bank Park. | CREDIT: Joe Gulfson |
The Phillies’ magic number is two.
They are three games ahead of the only National League team outside the playoff field that can still catch them.
And now there is a nor’easter involved.
Of course there is.
Because after 158 games, the Phillies have somehow arrived at a final weekend in which two wins could make everything disappear — and anything less could turn the end of the regular season into a combination of scoreboard watching, tiebreaker math, weather forecasts and possibly even rescheduled baseball.
This should be simple.
Win two games, and the Phillies are in.
Two victories get Philadelphia to 89-73. Arizona, sitting at 84-74 entering Thursday, can finish no better than 88-74.
No help required. No calculators. No worrying about what happens 2,300 miles away in San Diego.
Just win twice.
The problem is what happens if the Phillies don’t.
Wednesday’s 4-1 loss to Milwaukee offered a fairly persuasive reason not to assume anything. Philadelphia went 0-for-12 with runners in scoring position, stranded 10 and wasted six consecutive scoreless innings from its pitching staff after the Brewers took a 4-1 lead.
Now comes one more game against the 99-win Brewers, followed by three against Tampa Bay, which enters Thursday with 96 wins and the best record in the American League.
Not exactly a soft landing.
Go 1-3 and Philadelphia finishes 88-74.
Arizona could match that by winning its remaining four games. And that would be a problem.
The Phillies and Diamondbacks split their six meetings this season, which sends a two-team tie to intradivision record. Arizona has already secured the advantage there. So if the Diamondbacks win out while Philadelphia manages only one victory, Arizona can jump the Phillies.
Go 0-4 and the trap door opens even wider.
Philadelphia would finish 87-75. Arizona would need to go 3-1 merely to reach the same record.
Meanwhile, Chicago owns its tiebreaker over Philadelphia. San Diego entered Thursday already at 88 wins. The Phillies suddenly could go from wondering where they will play in October to wondering whether they will play there at all.
And then there is the weather.
Major League Baseball has already changed the schedule of another series directly connected to the Phillies’ Wild Card race.
With a major coastal storm expected to affect New England this weekend, Sunday’s Cubs-Red Sox game at Fenway Park has been moved to Friday afternoon, creating a split doubleheader. Chicago and Boston are now scheduled to complete their regular seasons Saturday.
Even that is not guaranteed.
Major League Baseball has discussed contingency plans if conditions prevent the series from being completed, including the possibility of playing at another site. If games affecting the postseason race cannot be played this weekend, Monday — the day before the Wild Card Series begins — remains available.
Philadelphia has not reached that point.
The current forecast around Citizens Bank Park is less ominous than Boston’s, but the same coastal system is expected to move toward the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England through the weekend. The National Weather Service is monitoring the potential for rain and strong winds across the region, with the exact track still important to the eventual impact.
So add another variable.
The Phillies are trying to clinch against two of baseball’s best teams while watching Arizona, San Diego and Chicago — and potentially watching radar.
That is September baseball distilled into something bordering on absurdity.
The strangest part is that the Phillies still control almost all of this.
Arizona cannot reach 89 wins.
Philadelphia can.
Two victories erase every nightmare scenario.
And because Arizona finishes the season with three games against San Diego, those teams cannot both win their way through the weekend. Every game between them necessarily damages somebody involved in the race.
The Phillies simply have to take care of themselves.
But there is something fitting about the uncertainty.
This has been a Philadelphia season filled with contradictions — a team good enough to remain in playoff position almost the entire way, inconsistent enough to prevent the final week from becoming ceremonial.
Now everything has been compressed into four games.
Go 2-2 and nobody remembers any of this.
Go 1-3 and Arizona has a path.
Go 0-4 and start calculating.
Lose a game to the weather and MLB may have to start rearranging the calendar.
Four games.
Two wins.
Three other teams.
One coastal storm.
The Phillies have spent six months trying to reach October.
They are almost there.
Almost, however, is suddenly doing a remarkable amount of work.
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