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| Aaron Nola surrendered two homers in Wednesday's loss to the Brewers. | CREDIT: Luke Nuttingham |
The more important number might still be two.
That remains the Phillies’ magic number to reach the postseason after a 4-1 loss to Milwaukee, a night in which Philadelphia repeatedly created scoring opportunities without converting any of them into hits. Arizona beat Colorado later Wednesday night, and San Diego also won, leaving the Phillies’ postseason magic number at two and keeping the champagne on ice for at least another day.
That makes what happened against the Brewers more than one aggravating offensive performance.
It was a missed opportunity to put October within their own grasp.
The Phillies finished 0-for-12 with runners in scoring position. They had enough traffic to make the game uncomfortable and enough pitching after the third inning to make a comeback entirely reasonable. Milwaukee scored four runs on six hits. The Phillies scored one run on six hits.
That is the distinction that should concern them with October approaching.
This was not merely a bad night with men on base. It was another reminder that Philadelphia’s offense has become increasingly dependent on sequencing perfectly because it is not consistently producing enough damage on its own. When the hits don’t arrive in exactly the right order — or when Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper doesn’t change the score with one swing — innings can look busy without becoming productive.
Wednesday was perhaps the cleanest example yet.
The Phillies loaded the bases with nobody out in the second against Logan Henderson after Alec Bohm singled, Bryson Stott doubled and Brandon Marsh walked.
One run scored.
And it came on a J.T. Realmuto groundout.
Justin Crawford followed with a flyout. Schwarber grounded out.
Three runners. No outs. One run.
That was as close as the Phillies came to turning the night.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, needed exactly one at-bat with a runner in scoring position. William Contreras delivered a two-run single in the third. The Brewers finished 1-for-1 with runners in scoring position.
Philadelphia went 0-for-12.
There is randomness in that statistic. Nobody expects an offense to hit .400 with runners in scoring position every night, just as nobody expects a lineup to go hitless in 12 consecutive chances.
But the Phillies’ larger offensive issue has been building for weeks.
And that is why Wednesday felt more significant than simply wasting a chance to inch closer to a Wild Card berth.
The Brewers got to Aaron Nola early. Brice Turang homered in the first. Christian Yelich homered in the second. Contreras’ two-run single made it 4-1 in the third.
Then Milwaukee stopped scoring.
Nola struck out eight over six innings and retired the final 10 batters he faced. Tanner Banks and Max Lazar followed with three scoreless innings.
The Phillies’ pitching staff gave the offense six consecutive innings without allowing Milwaukee to add another run.
Nothing changed.
Stott doubled again in the fourth and never scored.
Crawford singled and Schwarber walked to open the fifth. Crawford eventually reached third while Schwarber remained at first, giving Harper and Luis Arraez opportunities to change the inning.
Nothing.
Stott reached again in the sixth.
Nothing.
Schwarber was hit by a pitch and Trea Turner reached on an infield single in the seventh, again putting pressure on Milwaukee’s bullpen.
Nothing.
Bryan De La Cruz doubled with two outs in the eighth.
Nothing.
The Phillies stranded 10 runners.
That is what makes 0-for-12 less useful as an explanation than it is as a symptom.
Philadelphia created opportunities. It drew four walks. It collected three doubles. It put runners in scoring position in six different innings.
It kept getting halfway there.
But October games are decided in precisely that space between creating an inning and finishing one. The Phillies know that better than most after the way each of their recent postseason runs ended.
Traffic is not offense.
A scoring opportunity is not a run.
And right now, too many Phillies innings require several things to happen correctly before the scoreboard moves.
The postseason race is making that problem increasingly difficult to dismiss.
Arizona’s 5-3 win over Colorado kept Philadelphia’s magic number at two. San Diego’s 5-1 victory over the Dodgers pushed the Padres to 88-70, one game ahead of the 87-71 Phillies. Chicago also sits at 87-71 and owns the season-series tiebreaker over Philadelphia.
So the Phillies entered Thursday occupying the third and final National League Wild Card position rather than preparing for a champagne celebration.
They can still clinch Thursday with a win over Milwaukee and a loss by either Arizona or San Diego.
But clinching is becoming the less interesting question.
The Phillies are close to meaningful October baseball. What matters now is what kind of offense is coming with them.
Wednesday night offered an uncomfortable answer.
One capable of creating 12 opportunities with runners in scoring position — and turning every one of them into nothing.
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