PHILADELPHIA -- Andrew Painter has been “the future” in Philadelphia for so long that it’s easy to forget the Phillies don’t need a future right now.
They need impact.
Because this version of the Phillies is not built on emergence. It’s built on preservation.
Bryce Harper is in his 30s. Trea Turner is in his 30s. Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are in their 30s. Zack Wheeler, the anchor of the rotation, is in his mid-30s and not expected to be ready for Opening Day.
“I don’t think he’ll be ready for Opening Day,” manager Rob Thomson said recently. “But it’s not going to be too far behind that.”
That timeline creates opportunity. And opportunity creates urgency.
Which brings us back to Painter.
For two years, he has been the organization’s most tantalizing variable — a 6-foot-7 right-hander with frontline stuff who hasn’t yet thrown a major-league pitch because of Tommy John surgery and the long, uneven road back from it.
The arm strength returned last year. The dominance didn’t.
In 2022, before the injury, Painter carved through three levels of the minors at age 19 and posted a 0.89 WHIP across 103 innings. He allowed barely a baserunner per frame. His combination of velocity, extension and command separated him from almost every pitching prospect in the sport.
Last season, in his first full year back, that WHIP climbed to 1.48 over 118 innings between Clearwater and Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The fastball still reached the upper-90s. The breaking ball still missed bats. But the difference was traffic — deeper counts, more walks, more pitches per inning. His ERA finished at 5.26.
“He had stuff last year. He still threw hard last year,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said. “I’m looking for him to command his pitches better.”
That’s the entire equation now.
This isn’t about radar readings. It’s about repeatability. Dombrowski noted that Painter has gone back to long toss and adjusted his arm angle slightly this winter in an effort to get back to the delivery he had before surgery.
“He’s gone back to long toss, which he hadn’t always done in the past. He’s got his arm angle up a tick more, which they think will help him back to where he was before,” Dombrowski said.
Thomson, meanwhile, acknowledged the mental toll of the last two years.
“I would think the last couple years have been taxing on him, not just mentally but emotionally, because he wants to pitch,” Thomson said. “He wants to play, he wants to perform. So I think just being in this camp and not having to worry about any rehab stuff will clear his mind.”
All of that matters. But here’s what matters more:
The Phillies are no longer in the stage of their competitive cycle where prospects are luxuries.
They are necessities.
This roster can still win. It can still contend. But veteran cores don’t expand windows — they narrow margins. If the Phillies want this opportunity to extend beyond the immediate horizon, they need young players to do more than hold spots.
They need them to shift ceilings.
A dependable fifth starter helps manage innings in April. An impact arm alters postseason math in October.
Painter does not need to be the ace he was projected to become at 19. He doesn’t need to dominate Grapefruit League lineups in February. But at some point — this year or soon after — the Phillies will need him to be more than depth.
They will need him to matter.
For two years, Andrew Painter has been a promise deferred. This spring, the Phillies aren’t asking for promise.
They’re asking whether he can move the needle — before time starts moving on them.
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