PHILADELPHIA -- By the second week of February, the standings already exist — at least the theoretical ones.
They live inside projection models, in decimals and median outcomes, in spreadsheets that do not care about momentum or clubhouse chemistry or what happened last October. And right now, those projections are sending a clear signal about the National League East.
This is a three-team race.
FanGraphs’ preseason depth chart projections have the Atlanta Braves in front, New York Mets close behind, and the Philadelphia Phillies not far off the pace. Those same projections place the Braves at roughly 92 wins, the Mets near 90, and the Phillies near 88, creating a tight top tier that sits well above the division’s two other clubs.
In other words, the math sees what the division has been quietly becoming: a heavyweight bout among three clubs built to win now.
Atlanta’s projection profile is the most stable of the bunch. FanGraphs’ playoff odds give the Braves one of the highest chances in the National League to repeat as division champs based on their projected full-season performance. Their core of established major leaguers — including Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson and others — fuels that confidence, and the model’s median outcome still places them atop the NL East projection board.
The Mets, meanwhile, enter the season with impact talent and an offense capable of matching Atlanta’s output. New York’s roster moves have drawn attention from multiple projection outlets, and ZiPS projections have the Mets finishing near the top of the division. But models also show a range of outcomes for New York: if their pitching staff remains consistent, they stay in the hunt; if not, the margin for error is thin in a division this tight.
The Phillies may be the most intriguing of the three. FanGraphs’ playoff-odds model currently gives them a smaller chance than Atlanta or New York to defend their NL East title, but other forecasting systems — including a recent ZiPS set of simulations — project Philadelphia with a winning season and a legitimate shot at finishing first. This split reflects how different projection methods weigh various performance indicators and uncertainty around supporting pitching.
Taken together, the projections tell a consistent story: the Braves, Mets and Phillies occupy the division’s best statistical outlooks, with projected wins clustered within a handful of games and playoff odds significantly ahead of the Marlins and Nationals.
Which rotation stays healthy? Which lineup avoids a slump? Which bullpen carries its weight? Those are the questions that projection systems cannot answer — and they are the ones that will define the 2026 NL East.
Because in a division where near-90 wins can be the difference between first and third, the distance between confidence and urgency is thinner than it appears in February.
The projections have drawn the outline.
Now comes the part they can’t simulate.
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