The most important number from the Phillies’ 10-3 loss to the Mets was not 10.
It was seven.
Seven games remain in the regular season. Seven games for the Phillies to secure a postseason berth, improve their Wild Card position and determine which pitchers can be trusted when a playoff game hangs in the balance.
Saturday night at Citi Field provided fewer answers than eliminations.
Orion Kerkering was optioned to Triple-A after allowing four runs in the eighth inning. Andrew Painter showed enough promise to remain an intriguing October possibility, but surrendered two home runs and could not protect a 3-1 lead. Brooks Raley and Chase Shugart failed to contain the damage in the sixth.
And Jhoan Duran, the one reliever Philadelphia unquestionably wants pitching the final inning of a postseason game, never had a reason to stand up.
This was not merely a bullpen collapse or another September loss to an eliminated rival. It was a night when the Phillies’ potential playoff pitching staff became harder to assemble.
The trouble began despite Painter looking dominant for stretches. He struck out six, walked one and allowed only four hits in 5⅓ innings. But two of those hits left the ballpark.
Carson Benge led off the second with a home run. Then, after the Phillies built a 3-1 advantage, Painter’s night turned in a span of 10 pitches in the fifth. Marcus Semien walked, Brett Baty singled and Francisco Alvarez drove an opposite-field three-run homer into the right-field seats.
Three batters. Four runs. Lead gone.
Painter was charged with four earned runs and fell to 3-10, but his performance was not a simple failure. His stuff played. He missed bats. He retired nine consecutive batters between Benge’s homer and Semien’s walk. The question is whether the Phillies can live with the volatility that accompanies it. In October, one bad sequence can end a season. It can also happen to any pitcher. That is what makes Painter such a fascinating possibility for a bullpen that desperately needs another dependable arm. Since returning from Triple-A on July 31, he owns a 3.88 ERA. He also said after Saturday’s game that he would be willing to work in relief during the postseason.
The Phillies may need him there because their circle of trust keeps shrinking.
Jonathan Bowlan suffered what the club described as a mild right groin strain Thursday. Kerkering is now headed to Lehigh Valley after his latest appearance became impossible to dismiss as merely another rough outing.
Saturday’s eighth inning began with Philadelphia trailing 6-3—a relatively low-pressure setting designed to let Kerkering find something positive. Instead, he allowed a bloop single, issued two walks, hit a batter, threw a wild pitch and surrendered three consecutive RBI singles.
Four runs scored. Kerkering recorded one out.
He has now permitted at least one run in eight of his last nine appearances, producing an 11.57 ERA during that stretch. His ERA over 22 outings since July 22 is 10.24. A pitcher who opened the season by posting a 2.33 ERA through his first 41 appearances became someone interim manager Don Mattingly could no longer comfortably use.
That is a remarkable—and painful—September transformation.
The Phillies entered the evening with an opportunity to move into the top National League Wild Card position. Instead, they fell to 85-70 while Chicago and San Diego both improved to 86-69. Philadelphia still holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Padres, but now trails both clubs by a game in the race to host a best-of-three Wild Card Series.
Missing the postseason would require a dramatic collapse. Missing home-field advantage requires considerably less.
That difference matters. It determines whether the Phillies begin October at Citizens Bank Park or board another flight. It determines whether Duran enters to the sound of 45,000 people or tries to silence somebody else’s crowd.
The offense deserves part of Saturday’s blame. Alec Bohm delivered RBI singles in the fourth and fifth, while Bryce Harper produced a double and sacrifice fly. But after scoring three runs on seven hits through five innings, the Phillies managed one hit over the final three.
The Mets scored the game’s final nine runs.
So, yes, the final score was ugly. But the larger problem was revealed beneath it.
The Phillies know who should finish a close playoff game. They are increasingly unsure who can get the baseball to him.
With seven games left, that may be the most urgent question on the roster.
The Phillies may need him there because their circle of trust keeps shrinking.
Jonathan Bowlan suffered what the club described as a mild right groin strain Thursday. Kerkering is now headed to Lehigh Valley after his latest appearance became impossible to dismiss as merely another rough outing.
Saturday’s eighth inning began with Philadelphia trailing 6-3—a relatively low-pressure setting designed to let Kerkering find something positive. Instead, he allowed a bloop single, issued two walks, hit a batter, threw a wild pitch and surrendered three consecutive RBI singles.
Four runs scored. Kerkering recorded one out.
He has now permitted at least one run in eight of his last nine appearances, producing an 11.57 ERA during that stretch. His ERA over 22 outings since July 22 is 10.24. A pitcher who opened the season by posting a 2.33 ERA through his first 41 appearances became someone interim manager Don Mattingly could no longer comfortably use.
That is a remarkable—and painful—September transformation.
The Phillies entered the evening with an opportunity to move into the top National League Wild Card position. Instead, they fell to 85-70 while Chicago and San Diego both improved to 86-69. Philadelphia still holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Padres, but now trails both clubs by a game in the race to host a best-of-three Wild Card Series.
Missing the postseason would require a dramatic collapse. Missing home-field advantage requires considerably less.
That difference matters. It determines whether the Phillies begin October at Citizens Bank Park or board another flight. It determines whether Duran enters to the sound of 45,000 people or tries to silence somebody else’s crowd.
The offense deserves part of Saturday’s blame. Alec Bohm delivered RBI singles in the fourth and fifth, while Bryce Harper produced a double and sacrifice fly. But after scoring three runs on seven hits through five innings, the Phillies managed one hit over the final three.
The Mets scored the game’s final nine runs.
So, yes, the final score was ugly. But the larger problem was revealed beneath it.
The Phillies know who should finish a close playoff game. They are increasingly unsure who can get the baseball to him.
With seven games left, that may be the most urgent question on the roster.
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