For much of this season, Aaron Nola represented a question the Phillies could not comfortably answer.
Could they trust him in October? Could they overlook the losses, separate performance from record and believe the dependable version of Nola would eventually return? Could a club fighting for its postseason life afford to keep waiting?
Nine games before the end of the regular season, Nola has turned the question around.
Perhaps the Phillies should be asking where they would be without him.
Nola delivered seven scoreless innings Thursday night as Philadelphia opened its four-game series at Citi Field with a 3-0 victory over the Mets. He surrendered three hits, walked three and struck out four, continuing a late-season resurgence that has substantially changed the complexion of the Phillies’ rotation.
Nola now owns a 2.10 ERA across his last 10 starts. His season record remains an unremarkable 7-10, but that number increasingly describes where he has been—not the pitcher he has become.
The timing could hardly be more important.
Jesús Luzardo is on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. Andrew Painter remains talented but unpredictable. The Phillies are improvising another pitching assignment Friday night. Even Zack Wheeler’s dominance cannot solve a postseason rotation by itself.
Nola’s return to form gives Philadelphia something it could not assume two months ago: a legitimate second October starter.
Thursday’s performance was not built around overwhelming the Mets. Nola struck out only four and allowed three walks. Instead, he controlled contact, worked out of the limited trouble he created and kept New York hitless until Nick Morabito’s two-out single in the fifth inning.
It was the kind of outing postseason teams require—less spectacular than authoritative.
The Phillies provided only three runs, beginning with Bryce Harper’s RBI single in the fifth after a replay reversal kept the inning alive. Luis Arraez added a sacrifice fly in the seventh, and Justin Crawford supplied another in the eighth. Harper finished with three hits.
Three runs were enough because Nola never permitted the Mets to dictate the game.
But if Nola’s resurgence strengthened one part of Philadelphia’s October blueprint, the eighth inning weakened another.
Jonathan Bowlan departed with tightness in his right groin after appearing to injure himself while pitching to Francisco Lindor. He attempted one additional delivery before leaving with a trainer.
Bowlan said he did not feel a pop and indicated the injury did not seem as severe as the groin strain that placed him on the injured list in April. The Phillies will evaluate him further, but even a short absence would complicate a bullpen that already has far more questions than answers.
Bowlan has emerged as interim manager Don Mattingly’s primary right-handed setup option ahead of Jhoan Duran. His role is significant not because he has become untouchable, but because the Phillies have struggled to identify dependable alternatives.
Duran has established himself in the ninth. José Alvarado offers late-inning power from the left side. Beyond them, Mattingly has spent much of September mixing matchups, searching for favorable pockets and hoping somebody converts an opportunity into a defined role.
If Bowlan is unavailable, rookie Alex McFarlane could inherit more high-leverage responsibility. That would place another inexperienced arm closer to the center of a playoff race with virtually no room for experimentation.
And the Phillies may need that unsettled bullpen immediately.
Recently claimed right-hander José Urquidy is expected to start Friday’s 7:15 p.m. game against Mets left-hander Zac Thornton. Urquidy joins Philadelphia after posting a 5.28 ERA in 11 appearances this season. Thornton enters at 4-5 with a 3.44 ERA and held the Phillies to one run over six innings in a June start.
The contrast between Thursday and Friday is difficult to miss.
One night after relying on a veteran who has spent nearly a decade in Philadelphia’s rotation, the Phillies will turn to a pitcher who joined the organization Thursday. And they may do it without one of their preferred late-inning relievers.
That makes the remaining three games against New York particularly important.
Philadelphia enters Friday at 85-68, tied with Chicago for the National League’s best Wild Card record and only one game ahead of surging San Diego. The Padres have won nine of their last 10, eliminating any illusion that the Phillies can coast toward a postseason berth. Chicago owns the tiebreaker over Philadelphia, meaning finishing level with the Cubs would not deliver the top Wild Card seed.
That seed comes with the right to host the opening postseason series. The third Wild Card goes on the road. A short losing streak could pull Philadelphia toward the wrong side of that distinction—or closer to the edge of the postseason field entirely.
The schedule adds urgency. After Sunday, the Phillies return home for three games against Milwaukee and three against Tampa Bay. The eliminated Mets have lost five consecutive games. This is the portion of the schedule Philadelphia must exploit before the competition becomes more difficult.
Thursday revealed two versions of the Phillies’ pitching staff.
Nola looked increasingly prepared for October. The bullpen looked increasingly uncertain about how it might get there.
For months, the Phillies waited for Nola to become an answer.
Now they need to find several more behind him.
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