Now the schedule is compressing that race into seven games.
Atlanta arrives at Citizens Bank Park Friday with an 83-57 record and a four-game lead in the National League East. The Phillies are 79-61. Seven of Philadelphia's final 22 games are against the Braves — four this weekend, then three more beginning next Friday in Atlanta.
That makes this more than the biggest series of the season.
It is an October routing decision.
If the Phillies take three of four this weekend, they leave only two games back. Sweep, and the division is tied. Lose three, and the deficit becomes six. Get swept, and Atlanta leaves Philadelphia eight games ahead with only 18 remaining.
There isn't much gray area left.
“We’re all excited for the challenge,” Kyle Schwarber told reporters this week.
They should be.
Because this is the type of opponent the Phillies still need to prove they can beat.
Philadelphia's 21-7 August was the best record in baseball and rescued a season that had again started slipping away. Since sitting at 57-53 at the end of July, the Phillies are 22-8. Go all the way back to the managerial change and the transformation is even more dramatic: Don Mattingly is 70-42 since replacing Rob Thomson, a .625 winning percentage — essentially a 101-win pace over a full season.
But August came with a qualifier.
Only one of the Phillies' 28 games that month came against a team currently holding a playoff position. Philadelphia also enters this weekend below .500 against clubs with winning records.
So Atlanta isn't merely the next opponent after a great month.
Atlanta is the audit.
The Braves have already administered one.
They are 5-1 against the Phillies this season, including a three-game sweep at Citizens Bank Park in April. Philadelphia was 9-19 and 10½ games behind Atlanta after the teams last met April 26. Rob Thomson was fired two days later.
The head-to-head damage matters now for another reason.
With MLB using head-to-head record as the first postseason tiebreaker rather than playing a Game 163, the Phillies need to win six of the remaining seven meetings just to finish the season series ahead of Atlanta, 7-6. Anything less gives the Braves that advantage if the clubs finish with identical records.
There is another number worth noticing.
Atlanta owns a +118 run differential. Philadelphia is only +36. The Phillies' 79-61 record is five wins better than their 74-66 run-based expected record, and they have gone 24-12 in one-run games.
That isn't an indictment. Winning close games is a skill every October team needs.
But it does illustrate the difference between these clubs. Atlanta has spent the season overwhelming opponents more consistently. Philadelphia has spent much of it surviving, adjusting and eventually learning how to win games that could go either way.
This weekend will test whether that formula works against the team setting the pace in the East.
The Phillies at least have the rotation aligned exactly the way they would want it.
Friday begins with Cristopher Sánchez against Chris Sale, two of the leading Cy Young candidates in the league. Sánchez is 16-4 with a 2.52 ERA and 202 strikeouts. Sale enters 13-9 with a 2.06 ERA.
Saturday might be more revealing.
Zack Wheeler still carries a respectable 3.31 ERA, but his last seven starts have produced a 7.12 ERA. Wheeler acknowledged after his latest outing that he is still searching for the version of himself the Phillies will need in October.
“I'm still not out of it,” Wheeler said.
That's a bigger storyline than his matchup with Martín Pérez.
The Phillies can make the postseason without Wheeler being Wheeler. Winning four rounds is another matter.
Sunday brings the opposite trend. Aaron Nola struggled for months, then posted a 2.65 ERA in six August starts. He'll oppose Tyler Mahle, who has a 1.48 ERA in five starts since Atlanta acquired him at the deadline.
Monday belongs to Jesús Luzardo, the National League Pitcher of the Month for August. He owns a 2.07 ERA over his last 20 starts and faces Bryce Elder in the Labor Day finale.
If there is a postseason rotation hiding inside this roster, this weekend should resemble it.
The lineup has something to prove, too.
Bryce Harper arrives with the longest active on-base streak in baseball at 35 games and a .903 OPS. But Philadelphia's August turnaround became more convincing when Harper and Schwarber stopped carrying the offense alone. Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott heated up, Justin Crawford contributed and the lineup produced a 110 wRC+ during the month.
Trea Turner remains the conspicuous exception. He hit .215 with a .292 on-base percentage and a .572 OPS in August. If October is the destination, the Phillies eventually need more from a hitter who remains fixed near the top of the order.
And October is really what this weekend is about.
Philadelphia currently holds the National League's top wild-card position, with Chicago only a half-game behind. If those positions remain unchanged, the Phillies and Cubs would meet in a best-of-three Wild Card Series at Citizens Bank Park.
Win the division and the equation changes. The Phillies would at least escape the wild-card-versus-wild-card matchup, and a top-two record among NL division champions would earn a first-round bye.
That's what these seven games against Atlanta can alter.
Not simply a division banner.
Rest. Rotation alignment. Opponent. Geography. The entire shape of October.
The Phillies proved during August that their season wasn't finished.
Beginning Friday night, they get to find out what that comeback actually bought them.
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