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| Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies in Game 3. |
The Phillies have already played a game to get into October and another to keep from leaving it.
Now they need to win one to go somewhere.
Aaron Nola starts Thursday’s deciding game of the National League Wild Card Series against the Braves at Truist Park. After Wednesday’s 4-3 escape, Philadelphia has another opportunity to turn a season spent searching for consistency into something worth remembering.
Here are five things that could decide whether the Phillies advance.
1. Nola must win the count before he can win the game
Nola finished 7-12 with a 4.67 ERA. Since August began, however, he has posted a 2.93 ERA over 11 starts, striking out 61 and walking 20 in 61⅓ innings.
The Atlanta matchup supplies a caution: In three starts against the Braves this season, Nola had a 4.50 ERA, with opponents slugging .500.
That makes count leverage essential. When Nola falls behind, Atlanta can narrow its search. When he establishes strikes, his curveball becomes a pitch hitters must consider rather than one they can dismiss.
Watch the early takes as closely as the early swings. If Braves hitters comfortably reject his secondary pitches, trouble could be developing before the scoreboard reveals it.
2. Wheeler’s entrance could become the game’s defining decision
Nola starts on normal rest. Zack Wheeler is expected to be available on three days’ rest after pitching Sunday’s regular-season finale.
The intriguing question is when Mattingly decides to use him.
A clean inning does not automatically earn Nola another. A difficult inning does not automatically require his removal. Contact quality, command and the approaching hitters should carry more weight than a predetermined inning target.
That is postseason baseball’s unforgiving arithmetic: An extra inning from the starter might preserve the bullpen, but one extra batter might end the season.
Wheeler’s availability gives Philadelphia an unusually strong alternative. Mattingly must recognize the moment when keeping that alternative in reserve becomes more dangerous than using it.
3. Atlanta is trying to control Philadelphia’s biggest bats from the first inning
Left-hander Ray Kerr opens for Atlanta, with right-hander Grant Holmes expected to handle bulk innings.
Kerr posted a 1.47 ERA over 18⅓ innings in nine appearances, allowing nine hits and two walks. Holmes finished 10-6 with a 3.44 ERA.
The opening matchup puts a left-hander in front of Schwarber and Harper. The subsequent pitching change prevents the Phillies from simply building familiarity against one starter.
Philadelphia’s opportunity is to disrupt that sequence.
Trea Turner reaching ahead of the two left-handed sluggers would change the first inning’s demands. Kerr would have to manage a baserunner while navigating the hitters Atlanta specifically chose him to face.
The first consequential matchup might begin before Schwarber steps into the box.
4. Three solo homers saved Wednesday. Thursday needs more paths to a run
Schwarber and Harper homered consecutively in the eighth to tie Game 2. Bohm’s two-out homer in the 10th supplied the winning run.
The Phillies’ power remains their most immediate weapon. It also works better when someone is standing on base.
Against Atlanta’s changing pitchers, the lineup needs contributions between its biggest swings: a walk that extends an inning, a single that brings the next hitter up with a chance, an at-bat that forces another difficult pitch.
The point is to multiply opportunities.
A solo homer can erase a mistake. A homer with runners aboard can change how the opposing manager handles the rest of the game.
Philadelphia should make Atlanta defend against both possibilities.
5. The ordinary plays cannot become extraordinary problems
Ronald Acuña Jr. stole second and third in the first inning Wednesday, with third base uncovered on the second steal, before scoring on Matt Olson’s single.
That sequence matters Thursday because preventing a run can be less dramatic, and just as valuable, as manufacturing one.
Covering the correct base. Holding a runner. Completing the relay. Knowing where the next throw belongs.
Every pitcher inherits the consequences of those details. A missed assignment can turn a manageable inning into a pitching change and consume an arm needed later.
Wednesday, Philadelphia found enough brilliance to overcome its mistakes.
Thursday, Nola and the pitchers behind him need something simpler from everyone around them: Make Atlanta earn every base, every run and every reason to celebrate.
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