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| Phillies manager Don Mattingly prior to Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. |
Their Wild Card Series against the Braves opens Tuesday at 2 p.m. at Truist Park, with Jesús Luzardo facing Chris Sale. Philadelphia has won its last two postseason series against Atlanta, but this meeting brings a different set of questions. Luzardo has not started in three weeks. The Phillies’ offense spent September searching for runs. And the bullpen may have to cover much of Game 1.
Here are five things to watch.
1. How long can Luzardo go?
Luzardo’s last start was a two-hit shutout against the Braves on Sept. 7. Left shoulder inflammation kept him out of the rotation afterward, and his only appearance against hitters since then was a four-pitch inning Sunday.
His season numbers—14 wins, a 2.87 ERA and 221 strikeouts—show what he can give the Phillies when healthy. They do not tell Mattingly how many pitches he can give them Tuesday.
That is the game’s first strategic puzzle. If Luzardo is sharp and efficient, Mattingly will have to decide how far to extend a pitcher who has not been built back up for a normal start. If he labors, the manager may need Andrew Painter or several relievers before the middle innings are over.
Watch Luzardo’s command early. A scoreless inning that takes 25 pitches could shorten his outing almost as surely as one in which Atlanta scores.
2. Can the Phillies make Sale work?
Sale finished the regular season with a 2.16 ERA. In four starts against Philadelphia, he posted a 2.08 ERA over 26 innings, and the Braves won every game. Bryce Harper is 2-for-21 against him in his career; Kyle Schwarber is 5-for-25.
The Phillies did not enter October swinging like a team prepared to overwhelm an ace. They hit .226 and slugged .356 in September, tying for 29th in the majors in both categories.
They need to make Sale earn his outs and take advantage of the few mistakes he offers. Trea Turner reaching base ahead of Schwarber and Harper would change the stakes of their at-bats. A walk, an extra base taken or a two-out hit could be the difference in a game where runs figure to be scarce.
Philadelphia scored three runs in seven innings against Sale on Sept. 11, its best output in their four meetings. Tuesday, even that might be enough—provided the Phillies can keep Atlanta from building a lead of its own.
3. Who makes up for Arraez’s absence?
Luis Arraez’s sprained ankle removes a .310 hitter from a lineup that has struggled to sustain rallies. It also reshuffles the infield: Alec Bohm starts at first base, Bryson Stott at second and Edmundo Sosa at third.
Mattingly has Turner, Schwarber, Harper and Bohm in the top four spots. Derek Hill and Bryan De La Cruz bat fifth and sixth, giving the Phillies two right-handed hitters in the middle of the order against the left-handed Sale.
Watch how Sale approaches Schwarber and Harper when runners are aboard. If he pitches around them, Bohm, Hill and De La Cruz must make him pay. Arraez would have offered another way to put the ball in play. Without him, the Phillies can ill afford empty at-bats behind their biggest threats.
There is an unusual footnote to Arraez’s absence: neither Caleb Kilian nor Brooks Raley made the Wild Card roster, either. None of the Phillies’ three deadline acquisitions will appear in this series.
4. Who can Mattingly trust between Luzardo and Duran?
Jhoan Duran provides a strong answer at the end of a close game. He finished the regular season with a 1.82 ERA, 84 strikeouts in 59⅓ innings and 33 saves. Getting him a lead may be the harder part.
Jonathan Bowlan struck out 73 batters in 56⅓ innings with a 3.36 ERA. But he has not pitched since Sept. 17, when he left a game against the Mets with a right groin strain. He is on the roster, though his first appearance back could come in one of the season’s biggest moments.
José Alvarado’s recent results offer little comfort. Over his last five appearances, he recorded three innings while allowing six earned runs, five hits and four walks. His last two outings accounted for all six runs.
Rookie Alex McFarlane has been more effective overall, posting a 2.84 ERA in 19 appearances. His last three have been uneven: 1⅔ clean innings Sept. 22, two walks in a scoreless inning Sept. 24, then two runs on three hits in an inning Sunday.
Painter could cover multiple innings after Luzardo. But if Atlanta puts runners aboard in a tight game, Mattingly must decide whether to seek length or turn to a reliever carrying a question about health, command or recent form. That first handoff could decide whether Duran ever gets a lead to protect.
5. Can they contain Ronald Acuña Jr.?
Acuña posted a 1.377 OPS in seven September games against the Phillies. He bats second Tuesday, between Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson.
That arrangement can create trouble immediately. If Baldwin reaches, Luzardo will face Acuña with a runner aboard before settling into the game. If Acuña gets on, Olson can turn one baserunner into a scoring chance.
Luzardo shut out Atlanta three weeks ago, but the pitchers following him will have to navigate Acuña, too. Keeping him from starting or extending rallies may be as important as anything the Phillies do against Sale.
Philadelphia has beaten the Braves in October before. To do it again, the Phillies need enough offense against an ace, a manageable start from Luzardo and reliable outs before the ball reaches Duran. Game 1 will test all three at once.
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