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| The 2026 Phillies are closing in on one of the most infamous collapses in franchise history. | CREDIT: Tim Saunders |
In Philadelphia, one of them is 6½.
Sixty-two years ago, the Phillies owned a 6½-game lead with 12 games remaining. They lost 10 straight. They lost the National League pennant. And generations of Phillies fans eventually learned that two words required no additional explanation:
1964 Phillies.
So perhaps there should have been a little more uneasiness when, by the end of Sept. 1, these Phillies had built a 6½-game cushion over Arizona in the race for the National League’s final Wild Card spot.
The circumstances were different. There were 23 games remaining, not 12. The Phillies weren't protecting a pennant. And nobody should pretend the two collapses are identical.
But 6½ was 6½.
And now?
Welcome to Sunday.
One game.
Zack Wheeler.
And the possibility of creating a sequel nobody in Philadelphia ever wanted.
The 1964 Phillies were trying to reach the World Series in an era without divisions, Wild Cards or expanded playoffs. They led the National League by 6½ games with 12 to play, then went 2-10. St. Louis finished 93-69. Philadelphia finished 92-70.
One game short.
The 2026 Phillies are merely trying to hold onto the final postseason spot in a 12-team playoff format.
Different prize.
Different era.
Same terrifying baseball question:
How does something that once appeared almost impossible to lose suddenly become this difficult to hold?
That's the part of 1964 that should make Philadelphia uncomfortable Sunday.
That collapse wasn't one catastrophic night. It was erosion.
A comfortable lead became a smaller lead. Then a smaller one. Then none at all.
It began memorably on Sept. 21, when Cincinnati's Chico Ruiz stole home with two outs and Frank Robinson batting to score the only run in a 1-0 Phillies loss. Philadelphia still led by 5½ games with 11 remaining.
No panic yet.
Then they lost again.
And again.
And again.
Ten straight.
These Phillies haven't lost 10 consecutive games.
They haven't needed to.
They have spent the final week accomplishing something almost as unsettling: turning October from an assumption into a question.
They have lost four straight.
Their offense has scored three runs during that stretch.
Saturday was the low point — a 12-1 humiliation against Tampa Bay in which the Phillies did not drive in a single run. Their lone run scored on an error.
And then history produced one of those uncomfortable little echoes.
As the 1964 Phillies spiraled, manager Gene Mauch repeatedly turned to Jim Bunning and Chris Short on two days' rest, desperately searching for a way to stop the skid.
Saturday night, Don Mattingly handed the baseball to Aaron Nola.
On two days' rest.
Nola had thrown 88 pitches Wednesday. He came back Saturday because the Phillies needed somebody to take the baseball.
He lasted one inning.
Now Wheeler gets it Sunday.
And that might explain this collapse better than any statistic.
The Phillies spent most of September thinking about how to arrange Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and the rest of their pitching staff for October.
Now October can wait.
First, there has to be an October.
Wheeler isn't pitching Sunday because it fits neatly into some postseason blueprint. He's pitching because the Phillies have reached Game 162 without finishing the job.
Arizona at least gave them a reprieve Saturday night by losing to San Diego.
That leaves Philadelphia one game ahead entering the final day.
The equation is brutally simple.
Beat Tampa Bay, and the Phillies are in.
If Arizona loses, the Phillies are in regardless.
But if Philadelphia loses and Arizona wins, the teams finish tied — and the Diamondbacks advance because they own the tiebreaker.
Phillies-Rays begins at 3:05 p.m.
Diamondbacks-Padres begins five minutes later.
Two games on opposite sides of the country deciding whether a postseason berth that appeared nearly secure weeks ago survives the final afternoon.
There is another historical wrinkle here.
After losing 10 straight in 1964, those Phillies actually won their final two games. They entered the season's last day still possessing a mathematical route to a three-way tie for the pennant.
Bunning threw a shutout.
For a few hours, hope survived.
Then St. Louis won.
The Phillies' response had arrived too late.
That's why 1964 never disappeared.
Not simply because the Phillies lost.
Because of how far they traveled from certainty to desperation.
The 2026 Phillies haven't completed that journey.
Not yet.
They have 27 outs Sunday to prevent it.
The comparison isn't perfect. It shouldn't be.
The 1964 team lost a pennant after leading by 6½ with 12 games remaining. This team once held a 6½-game cushion with 23 left and has now allowed the race to survive until Game 162.
But history doesn't always repeat itself perfectly.
Sometimes it just rhymes loudly enough to make an entire city uncomfortable.
Sixty-two years later, 6½ has returned.
Now the Phillies have one final afternoon to make sure it doesn't come to mean the same thing.
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