That makes this three-game series against the Reds more than a soft landing before the sport’s attention begins shifting toward Philadelphia. The Phillies enter Tuesday at 50-41, second in the NL East and sitting in the National League Wild Card mix. Cincinnati comes in at 41-48, fifth in the NL Central and seven games back in the Wild Card race. On paper, it is a series the Phillies should control. In practice, July has a way of exposing teams that start thinking too far ahead.
The Phillies arrive in Cincinnati after one of their ugliest afternoons of the season, a 15-1 loss to Kansas City in which the Royals hit four homers and turned the finale into a runaway. That kind of game can be dismissed as one bad day over 162, but only if the response is immediate. For a club that has spent much of the season trying to climb out from under the damage of its early skid, this is not the time for drift.
The opener gives the Phillies their best possible reset button: Zack Wheeler. The veteran right-hander is listed to start Tuesday night against left-hander Andrew Abbott at Great American Ball Park. Wheeler enters at 8-1 with a 2.36 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 84 strikeouts over 80 innings. Abbott, meanwhile, is 5-4 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 73 strikeouts over 95 innings. It is the kind of matchup that places the burden squarely where the Phillies would want it — on their ace to stop any hint of a skid before it grows teeth.
But Cincinnati is not without danger, even if the record says otherwise. The Reds have two newly named National League All-Stars in rookie right-hander Chase Burns and infielder Sal Stewart. Burns, scheduled to start Wednesday against a Phillies starter still listed as TBD, is 10-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 116 strikeouts. He is not just a prospect story anymore. He is one of the reasons this series has a trap-door quality.
Stewart gives the Reds a middle-of-the-order threat the Phillies cannot ignore with 17 home runs and 61 RBIs, while Kyle Schwarber leads Philadelphia with 30 homers and 55 RBIs. That is the contrast in this series: the Phillies have the more complete team, the more urgent October path and the deeper expectations. The Reds have enough young impact to make a careless inning expensive.
Thursday’s finale is scheduled to feature Jesús Luzardo against Brady Singer. Luzardo enters at 7-4 with a 3.75 ERA and 125 strikeouts, while Singer is 3-8 with a 5.03 ERA.
The standings say the Phillies are in decent shape. Their run differential says they have not played as cleanly as their record suggests. Their rotation says they still have the arms to steady a season. Their lineup says it has enough thump to punish mistakes.
Now comes the task that defines contenders in July: beat the teams you are supposed to beat, do it without drama, and get home with the season still moving in the right direction.
The Phillies need to remove the bad taste from Kansas City, and tonight gives them a chance to do just that.
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