Brad Keller’s season-ending elbow injury did not create the Phillies’ bullpen problem.
It removed whatever margin for error remained.
Keller has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and is expected to miss the remainder of the season. He will seek another medical opinion before determining whether surgery is necessary, but the immediate baseball reality is settled: the Phillies must construct a postseason bullpen without the reliever they signed to a two-year, $22 million contract last winter.
That is a significant loss, although Keller had not exactly become the dependable shutdown arm the Phillies envisioned.
He finished his first season in Philadelphia with a 2-1 record, three saves, a 4.02 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP across 32 appearances. Keller struck out 32 in 31⅓ innings, solid but unspectacular numbers that represented a considerable decline from the 2.07 ERA and 0.96 WHIP he posted with the Cubs in 2025.
His performance had also become increasingly uneven before the injury. Keller recorded a 5.40 ERA and 2.10 WHIP over his final seven appearances, allowing nine hits and five walks in 6⅔ innings. In Milwaukee on June 13, he entered the eighth inning with a four-run lead and allowed five of the first six batters to reach. Three runs scored before he escaped with the Phillies still ahead.
It is fair to wonder how much the forearm and elbow trouble contributed to that decline. Keller first went on the injured list in June with forearm tendinitis, returned for only one appearance and was then diagnosed with the UCL tear. But even before the season officially ended, the Phillies were still waiting for him to resemble the dominant reliever they thought they had acquired.
That context makes the front office’s assignment clearer.
Dave Dombrowski should not approach the Aug. 3 trade deadline as though he simply needs to replace Keller. The Phillies already needed bullpen help when he was healthy. Now they need at least two additions: a proven late-inning right-hander and a trustworthy left-hander.
Jhoan Duran remains the closer and the one reliever whose role should not change. Orion Kerkering has earned important late-game work, while Jonathan Bowlan’s emergence gives interim manager Don Mattingly another legitimate option. Bowlan entered the second half with a 0.82 ERA over his previous 24 appearances.
But moving each pitcher up one inning only transfers the weakness elsewhere.
Kerkering can handle the eighth. Bowlan can assume more seventh-inning assignments. The problem arrives when one is unavailable, a starter leaves early or a postseason game requires the bullpen to record 12 outs instead of six.
October has repeatedly exposed the Phillies’ lack of relief depth. They cannot enter another postseason hoping an unproven middle reliever survives the most important inning of the season.
The left side presents another concern. José Alvarado carried a 6.82 ERA into the second half. Tanner Banks was injured after producing a 7.14 ERA, and Kyle Backhus had already been sent back to Triple-A with a 5.87 ERA. Tim Mayza has stabilized things somewhat, but the Phillies need another left-hander whom Mattingly can trust against the middle of an opposing lineup.
Dombrowski does not necessarily need the most recognizable closer available. He needs relievers who miss bats, control the strike zone and can handle inherited runners without allowing an inning to unravel.
The Phillies’ farm system is not deep enough to chase every prominent name, and acquiring a major bullpen piece could require parting with one of the organization’s few premium prospects. That makes identifying the right fit more important than simply making the loudest move.
Keller was supposed to help bridge the gap between the rotation and Duran.
His injury leaves that bridge incomplete. His inconsistent performance showed it was never particularly sturdy in the first place.
The Phillies should spend the next two weeks rebuilding it.
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