Tonight at 6:38 p.m. ET, the Dodgers and Phillies open the NLDS in South Philly: Cristopher Sánchez versus Shohei Ohtani, making—yes—his first postseason pitching appearance. A lefty who lived in the zone all year against the sport’s loudest two-way phenomenon?
Clear your evening.
Sánchez arrives carrying a season that would make any rotation jealous: 202 innings, 212 strikeouts, and the third sub-2.50 ERA by a Phillies lefty with 200+ innings and 200+ Ks. At home, he dialed the bass even lower: a 1.94 ERA in 15 starts.
Across the diamond, Ohtani finally gets the October pitching stage he hasn’t had since arriving stateside. After easing back into it this summer, he stacked enough starts to get here—14 of them—with 47 innings, 62 strikeouts, and that 2.87 ERA. Small samples, big stuff. Also: he just finished a 55-homer regular season, a Dodgers single-season record.
The backstory fits October: the defending champions from Los Angeles (93–69) just swept the Reds to make their 13th consecutive Division Series; the Phillies (96–66) spent all summer looking like a club that expected to play ball deep into fall. It’s their first playoff meeting since 2009. The last three times these teams met in October? The Phillies sent L.A. home. That sound you hear is a stadium remembering.
What’s the Dodgers’ calling card? Same as ever: runs and thunder. They led the NL in both, with 244 home runs and 825 runs. Ohtani sits in the middle of it, and Freddie Freeman (age 36, slash line .295/.367/.502) still lines baseballs like he’s negotiating with physics. Mookie Betts didn’t have his cleanest first half, but the last two months looked like Mookie being Mookie again. It’s not a lineup; it’s a gauntlet.
What’s the Phillies’ answer? Start with the season series: Phillies 4, Dodgers 2—including a series win in L.A. three weeks ago. That’s helpful context, not destiny. The Dodgers’ starters were nasty in that September set—Ohtani even spun five no-hit innings—but the Phillies cracked the bullpen and took the series anyway. Keep that in mind, because it leads us to the next thing.
Walks and late innings. Since Sept. 5, Dodgers relievers have owned one of MLB’s worst ERAs (5.08) and issued the most walks (54). In other words, the nights can get wobbly after Dave Roberts leaves the starter’s handshake. The Phillies, meanwhile, don’t gift many bases; staying out of hitter’s counts has been a quiet superpower. If there’s a hinge to this series, it might be the seventh inning on.
A few plot twists to flag before first pitch:
1) Zack Wheeler isn’t walking through that door. His season ended in August due to venous thoracic outlet surgery. The Phillies built around a left-handed trio—Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, Jesús Luzardo—and a deeper bullpen than we’ve seen here in years. They’ll need all of it.
2) Nick Castellanos Alert. In case you missed it, he ended the regular season with a walk-off sac fly for the Phillies’ MLB-leading 55th home win. He also hit with runners in scoring position down the stretch like a man who enjoys noise. If there’s an at-bat that tilts the place off its axis, don’t be shocked if it’s his.
3) Roki Sasaki exists; and he's good. He’s 23, he throws baseballs that blur, he missed five months with a shoulder impingement…and since returning late in September, he’s been a sneaky lever for L.A. Roberts has hinted at leverage usage; Sasaki just slammed the door on the Reds in the Wild Card.
So how do you beat a lineup with Ohtani/Freeman/Betts in neon? You don’t lengthen it. Pitch to traffic and the bottom third turns into a conga line. You also don’t walk them. The math is cruel in hitter’s counts—this Dodgers team punishes 2-0 and 3-1 like a hobby. Get ahead, stay ahead, and make them earn every 90 feet. The Phillies did that in April. They did it again in September. That’s not a coincidence; it’s a blueprint.
And how do you solve Citizens Bank Park in October if you’re the road team? Good luck. This place changes games. The Phillies are built to surf that wave: athletic defense, a rotation that puts the ball on the ground, and a lineup that can find three runs in a blink. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ advantage—depth—shows up when Roberts can roll starter-quality arms in the sixth. If L.A. keeps the ball in the yard and trims the free passes, that depth matters a lot more.
The determining factor in this series will likely be the bullpens. The Dodgers have shown weakness there, even in their series win over the Reds. If the Phillies can get to LA's starters early - and that's no small task, then the offense should be able to put enough fire power together to take this series.
On paper, this projects to be a long series. These two teams are arguably the two best in all of baseball. Both organizations will take defeat, at this stage in the postseason, as a failure. You don't carry this much star power and accept losing this early in October.
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