The Grapefruit League opener is here, folks, and you know what that means—it's time to start overanalyzing numbers that haven't even had a chance to go wrong yet! Before the Phillies take the field, here’s a look at Version 1.0 of some projections. Yes, they’re bound to be wrong. But hey, isn’t that part of the fun?
These aren't final. This list does not include every player on the roster. All of that will come though as Spring Training progresses. The projections were developed via a blend of already available projections via Fangraphs, and a homebrewed Excel sheet I've been using for more than a decade.
Real scientific stuff here, so let’s break it down.
The Bryce Harper Department of "How is This Not More?"
Let’s start with the face of the franchise. Bryce Harper’s projected 28 homers and 91 RBIs feel... strangely low? Maybe it’s because this is a guy who, in 2021, hit 35 bombs with a .615 slugging percentage while barely being able to use half his body. But this is also a man who spent last season rediscovering how to turn on a fastball post-Tommy John surgery. If that power fully returns, 28 might be a floor, not a ceiling. And let’s not ignore that 13.0% walk rate—because when Harper isn’t hitting, he’s still making sure someone else has to get the job done.
The "Will They, Won’t They" of Trea Turner
Yes, it took him three months to remember he was Trea Turner last year. And yes, Phillies fans basically willed him back to life the August before. But if he plays 145 games at a .279 clip with 22 home runs and 77 RBIs, that’s just about in line with his career numbers. His strikeout rate (19.3%) and walk rate (6.0%) remain consistent with his norms. The biggest question is whether he can avoid that early-season funk and be "WBC Trea Turner" all year long. Because that guy? That guy hits 40 bombs and gets a statue next to the Phanatic.
Alec Bohm, King of "Huh, That’s Pretty Good"
Every year, Alec Bohm quietly puts up numbers that make you double-take. This projection? 17 homers, 72 RBIs, a .276 average, and a strikeout rate (15.7%) that says, “I’m actually a contact hitter, thank you very much.” Will he win an MVP? No. Will he continue to be the most quietly productive guy in the lineup while making sure the entire city of Philadelphia argues about his future? Absolutely.
The "What Even is Nick Castellanos?" Experiment
Some guys you can predict. Nick Castellanos is not one of them. One year, he’s hitting .309 with an OPS flirting with 1.000. The next? He’s leading the league in chasing sliders off the plate. If these projections hold, we’re looking at 22 homers, 79 RBIs, and a .253 average. Will it feel streaky? Oh, you bet. But would the Phillies take that? Probably. It’s just a matter of what mood Castellanos is in when he wakes up on Opening Day.
The Bryson Stott "Put Some Respect On My Name" Section
We get it, Bryson Stott is a throwback player. Doesn’t strike out much (17.4%), gets his hits (.257 projected average), and chips in 15 homers and 68 RBIs. The guy plays solid defense and never, ever stops hustling. If he adds just a touch more pop? We might be talking about a modern-day Chase Utley Lite.
Johan Rojas and the "Wait, Does He Get a Full Season?" Watch
This one is tricky. Rojas is projected for just 75 games, which tells you that, despite his highlight-reel defense, there’s still a battle for playing time. But the kid hit .302 last year in his big-league cameo. If he holds his own at the plate and keeps running down everything in center field, he might make sure those 75 games turn into a full season real quick.
Final Thoughts: The "This Looks Good But Who Knows?" Disclaimer
Here’s what we know: this Phillies lineup should be dangerous. Even with conservative projections, we’re looking at a lineup with multiple 20+ homer guys, a few .270-ish hitters, and a couple of wild cards in the mix. Will they hit these numbers? Probably not. But will they be fun? Absolutely. Now, let’s sit back and see how much of this goes completely out the window by June.
Bring on baseball season.
The Bryce Harper Department of "How is This Not More?"
Let’s start with the face of the franchise. Bryce Harper’s projected 28 homers and 91 RBIs feel... strangely low? Maybe it’s because this is a guy who, in 2021, hit 35 bombs with a .615 slugging percentage while barely being able to use half his body. But this is also a man who spent last season rediscovering how to turn on a fastball post-Tommy John surgery. If that power fully returns, 28 might be a floor, not a ceiling. And let’s not ignore that 13.0% walk rate—because when Harper isn’t hitting, he’s still making sure someone else has to get the job done.
The "Will They, Won’t They" of Trea Turner
Yes, it took him three months to remember he was Trea Turner last year. And yes, Phillies fans basically willed him back to life the August before. But if he plays 145 games at a .279 clip with 22 home runs and 77 RBIs, that’s just about in line with his career numbers. His strikeout rate (19.3%) and walk rate (6.0%) remain consistent with his norms. The biggest question is whether he can avoid that early-season funk and be "WBC Trea Turner" all year long. Because that guy? That guy hits 40 bombs and gets a statue next to the Phanatic.
Alec Bohm, King of "Huh, That’s Pretty Good"
Every year, Alec Bohm quietly puts up numbers that make you double-take. This projection? 17 homers, 72 RBIs, a .276 average, and a strikeout rate (15.7%) that says, “I’m actually a contact hitter, thank you very much.” Will he win an MVP? No. Will he continue to be the most quietly productive guy in the lineup while making sure the entire city of Philadelphia argues about his future? Absolutely.
The "What Even is Nick Castellanos?" Experiment
Some guys you can predict. Nick Castellanos is not one of them. One year, he’s hitting .309 with an OPS flirting with 1.000. The next? He’s leading the league in chasing sliders off the plate. If these projections hold, we’re looking at 22 homers, 79 RBIs, and a .253 average. Will it feel streaky? Oh, you bet. But would the Phillies take that? Probably. It’s just a matter of what mood Castellanos is in when he wakes up on Opening Day.
The Bryson Stott "Put Some Respect On My Name" Section
We get it, Bryson Stott is a throwback player. Doesn’t strike out much (17.4%), gets his hits (.257 projected average), and chips in 15 homers and 68 RBIs. The guy plays solid defense and never, ever stops hustling. If he adds just a touch more pop? We might be talking about a modern-day Chase Utley Lite.
Johan Rojas and the "Wait, Does He Get a Full Season?" Watch
This one is tricky. Rojas is projected for just 75 games, which tells you that, despite his highlight-reel defense, there’s still a battle for playing time. But the kid hit .302 last year in his big-league cameo. If he holds his own at the plate and keeps running down everything in center field, he might make sure those 75 games turn into a full season real quick.
Final Thoughts: The "This Looks Good But Who Knows?" Disclaimer
Here’s what we know: this Phillies lineup should be dangerous. Even with conservative projections, we’re looking at a lineup with multiple 20+ homer guys, a few .270-ish hitters, and a couple of wild cards in the mix. Will they hit these numbers? Probably not. But will they be fun? Absolutely. Now, let’s sit back and see how much of this goes completely out the window by June.
Bring on baseball season.
More projections and commentary will come next week.
