The Phillies have spent the past week looking like a team finally finding its footing. The betting market, however, may be giving a little too much credit to the streak.
Philadelphia enters Wednesday’s series finale against Miami having won five consecutive games, including 6-5 and 6-4 victories over the Marlins on Monday and Tuesday. The Phillies are 69-58, while Miami sits at 64-63 entering the 6:05 p.m. first pitch at Citizens Bank Park.
FanDuel lists the Phillies as a -124 moneyline favorite, with Miami returning +114. The total sits at 8.5 runs, with both sides priced at -110. Philadelphia is +162 to cover the 1.5-run spread. Those odds were updated by FanDuel at 7 a.m. Wednesday.
The pitching matchup is where the price becomes interesting.
Aaron Nola gets the ball for Philadelphia against Sandy Alcantara. Nola enters 4-9 with a 5.33 ERA, while Alcantara is 13-7 with a 3.43 ERA.
Nola has been better recently, but Alcantara offers Miami something particularly important Wednesday: length. Since July 1, the Marlins ace has averaged 6.9 innings per start, and Miami is 10-4 in his starts since June 1. That matters even more after the Marlins used six pitchers in Tuesday night's bullpen game.
There is a counterargument. Nola has handled Miami well this season, allowing just one run over 11 2/3 innings against the Marlins. And if Philadelphia carries a late lead, its bullpen still has a significant weapon in closer Jhoan Duran.
But the price creates the betting case for Miami.
FanDuel Research's numberFire model projects the Marlins to win 55.8% of the time, even though Miami is the underdog. At +114, the market price implies a win probability of only about 46.7%. That's a gap of more than nine percentage points between the posted price and the model's projection.
That doesn't mean Miami wins 56% of the time simply because a model says so. It does mean that if you believe Alcantara's starting-pitching advantage outweighs Philadelphia's recent momentum and late-inning edge, the plus-money number becomes difficult to ignore.
The Pick: Marlins Moneyline +114
Philadelphia's five-game winning streak deserves respect, but this is a spot to sell slightly high on the Phillies.
Miami has the stronger starting pitcher, Alcantara's ability to work deep should reduce the strain on a bullpen that was heavily involved Tuesday, and FanDuel's +114 price gives bettors a favorable return without requiring the Marlins to cover a run line.
Official Pick: Miami Marlins ML (+114)
Prop Pick: Griffin Conine Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Griffin Conine provides an intriguing way to attack Nola.
Conine had two hits Tuesday, including a home run, and his underlying contact profile makes this more than a play based on one hot night. He owns a 92.7 mph average exit velocity, 54.6% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate this season.
The pitch matchup is even more interesting.
Nola has thrown his four-seam fastball roughly 23% of the time and his sinker about 20%. Conine has slugged .629 against four-seamers and .609 against sinkers this season, with hard-hit rates of 65.2% and 59.1%, respectively. Nola's most-used pitch is his curveball, and Conine has slugged .667 against curves in 2026.
At +145, the wager doesn't require another home run. A double is enough, and Conine's combination of current form, hard contact and performance against Nola's primary offerings makes the price attractive.
Odds are subject to change. Please wager responsibly.
