Naturally, the betting market noticed.
Philadelphia enters Sunday’s series finale against St. Louis as a substantial favorite behind Cristopher Sánchez. FanDuel listed the Phillies around -205 on the moneyline, -1.5 at plus money on the run line and the total at 7.5 runs Sunday morning.
There isn’t much mystery about which team owns the matchup advantage.
The more interesting question is how much bettors should be willing to pay for it.
Sánchez enters at 16-4 with a 2.51 ERA and 187 strikeouts. He has been particularly dominant at Citizens Bank Park, where he owns an 11-1 record and 1.42 ERA across 15 starts. He also enters Sunday 6-0 with a 2.18 ERA over his last seven starts.
St. Louis doesn’t need much of a scouting report.
The Cardinals faced Sánchez on Aug. 11 and managed nothing against him for six innings. Sánchez struck out seven and did not allow a run, although Philadelphia eventually lost the game, 2-0.
The Cardinals counter with Kyle Leahy, and this is where the matchup becomes a little more interesting than the moneyline suggests.
Leahy is 10-4 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, numbers that hardly resemble those of a pitcher simply waiting to be overwhelmed by a hot lineup.
He has also already beaten the Phillies this month.
Leahy limited Philadelphia to one run over five innings on Aug. 12 in a 7-1 Cardinals victory. He has pitched well throughout August, meaning anyone paying more than -200 for the Phillies is accepting a considerable price against a starter who has shown he can keep this lineup under control.
That makes the Phillies run line at -1.5 more appealing than the moneyline.
Philadelphia has scored seven and 12 runs in the first two games of the series, respectively, and Saturday offered another reminder of how quickly the lineup can create separation.
Every Phillies starter recorded a hit in the 12-3 victory. Bryce Harper homered. Kyle Schwarber hit his major-league-leading 38th homer. Alec Bohm continued his surge. And the Phillies have now won eight consecutive games while Atlanta’s NL East lead has shrunk to three.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have allowed 28 runs over their last three games.
There is another variable involving Leahy.
Sunday will push deeper into the largest workload of his professional career. He has already thrown 122 1/3 innings after never previously exceeding 88 in a season, and St. Louis has begun acknowledging the need to manage those innings down the stretch. MLB highlighted that workload concern entering Sunday’s game.
That could mean an earlier-than-normal entrance into the St. Louis bullpen.
Against this Phillies lineup, that isn’t necessarily where the Cardinals want the game decided.
Player prop to consider: Cristopher Sánchez 7+ strikeouts
There is also one Sánchez prop worth watching.
DraftKings listed Sánchez to record seven or more strikeouts at -143 Sunday morning.
The attraction is straightforward.
Sánchez already struck out seven Cardinals when he faced them Aug. 11. He enters Sunday with 187 strikeouts, and his recent run has been about much more than simply preventing runs. He has increasingly shown the ability to miss bats while pitching deep enough into games to accumulate strikeouts.
There is some risk. St. Louis generally owns a lineup capable of putting the baseball in play, and asking for seven strikeouts is considerably different than betting Sánchez simply to pitch well.
But if looking for one player prop connected directly to the strongest advantage in the matchup, Sánchez’s strikeout total makes the most sense.
The play
The Phillies deserve to be favored Sunday.
Sánchez gives them a sizeable starting-pitching advantage. They have the better lineup, are playing at home and enter with one of baseball’s longest active winning streaks.
But -205 or higher on the moneyline is an expensive way to express that opinion.
The better option is Philadelphia -1.5 at plus money, accepting the additional run in exchange for avoiding the inflated straight-up price.
Leahy gives St. Louis enough credibility to make the moneyline uncomfortable.
Sánchez, Philadelphia’s offense and a Cardinals pitching staff that has been battered throughout the weekend give the Phillies enough advantages to believe they can win by more than one.
Betting lean: Phillies -1.5
Player prop: Cristopher Sánchez 7+ strikeouts
There is also one Sánchez prop worth watching.
DraftKings listed Sánchez to record seven or more strikeouts at -143 Sunday morning.
The attraction is straightforward.
Sánchez already struck out seven Cardinals when he faced them Aug. 11. He enters Sunday with 187 strikeouts, and his recent run has been about much more than simply preventing runs. He has increasingly shown the ability to miss bats while pitching deep enough into games to accumulate strikeouts.
There is some risk. St. Louis generally owns a lineup capable of putting the baseball in play, and asking for seven strikeouts is considerably different than betting Sánchez simply to pitch well.
But if looking for one player prop connected directly to the strongest advantage in the matchup, Sánchez’s strikeout total makes the most sense.
The play
The Phillies deserve to be favored Sunday.
Sánchez gives them a sizeable starting-pitching advantage. They have the better lineup, are playing at home and enter with one of baseball’s longest active winning streaks.
But -205 or higher on the moneyline is an expensive way to express that opinion.
The better option is Philadelphia -1.5 at plus money, accepting the additional run in exchange for avoiding the inflated straight-up price.
Leahy gives St. Louis enough credibility to make the moneyline uncomfortable.
Sánchez, Philadelphia’s offense and a Cardinals pitching staff that has been battered throughout the weekend give the Phillies enough advantages to believe they can win by more than one.
Betting lean: Phillies -1.5
Player prop: Cristopher Sánchez 7+ strikeouts
