The Phillies finally have something they spent much of the summer trying to find: momentum.
Now the betting question is whether that momentum is worth paying more than two dollars on the moneyline.
Philadelphia opens a three-game series against St. Louis on Friday night at Citizens Bank Park riding a six-game winning streak. The Phillies enter 70-58, five games behind Atlanta in the National League East and holding the second National League wild-card position. St. Louis is 66-63 and sits 2½ games behind San Diego for the final wild-card spot.
First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m.
FanDuel lists Philadelphia as a -205 moneyline favorite, with St. Louis returning +186. The Phillies are +104 to cover 1.5 runs, while the Cardinals are -125 getting the run and a half. The total is 8.5, with the under priced at -122 and the over at +100.
The starting-pitching advantage belongs to Philadelphia.
Jesús Luzardo enters 11-5 with a 3.23 ERA and 185 strikeouts over 150⅓ innings. His latest start was another strong one: 6⅔ innings against Minnesota in which he allowed one run and struck out nine in a 9-1 Phillies victory.
That continued an impressive run. Across his past three starts, Luzardo has allowed just three earned runs over 21⅔ innings while striking out 28. He has reached at least seven strikeouts in each of those three outings.
St. Louis counters with Hunter Dobbins, who is 3-3 with a 3.42 ERA.
Dobbins shouldn't be dismissed simply because Philadelphia is such a substantial favorite. He held the Phillies to three runs — only one earned — over five innings on Aug. 10, allowing four hits while striking out six. His most recent start was also solid, as he allowed two runs over five innings with seven strikeouts in an 11-4 victory over the Cubs.
The larger game context, however, favors Philadelphia.
The Phillies were off Thursday after completing a sweep of Miami and have won six straight. Five of those victories have come by at least two runs.
St. Louis arrives under a considerably different workload. The Cardinals played eight games in seven days, including a doubleheader Monday in Cincinnati, before escaping with a wild 10-9 victory over the Reds on Thursday. They needed six unearned ninth-inning runs to take the lead before Cincinnati answered with four runs in the bottom half.
That becomes particularly relevant if Dobbins again gives St. Louis only five innings.
The Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+104)
I like Philadelphia tonight, but I don't like Philadelphia -205.
At -205, FanDuel's price implies roughly a 67% break-even probability. FanDuel Research's numberFire model gives Philadelphia a 64.3% chance to win. In other words, even a model that strongly favors the Phillies doesn't quite justify paying the full moneyline price.
The run line solves that problem.
Philadelphia has the superior starting pitcher, the fresher bullpen, home-field advantage and an offense that has finally begun producing consistently. If the Phillies win, I think there's enough probability that they win comfortably to justify taking +104 rather than laying -205.
Official Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+104)
Prop Pick: Jesús Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts
If FanDuel posts Luzardo at 6.5 strikeouts, the over is the player prop I want.
Luzardo has 28 strikeouts over his past three starts and 185 on the season. He has gone at least 6⅔ innings in each of those three outings, which provides both the swing-and-miss ability and workload necessary to reach seven strikeouts.
The price matters. I'd play over 6.5 at -130 or better. If FanDuel moves the line to 7.5 or heavily juices the over, the edge becomes considerably less attractive.
Prop Pick: Jesús Luzardo Over 6.5 strikeouts — if available at -130 or better.
Prediction: Phillies 5, Cardinals 2.
Odds are subject to change. Please wager responsibly.
I like Philadelphia tonight, but I don't like Philadelphia -205.
At -205, FanDuel's price implies roughly a 67% break-even probability. FanDuel Research's numberFire model gives Philadelphia a 64.3% chance to win. In other words, even a model that strongly favors the Phillies doesn't quite justify paying the full moneyline price.
The run line solves that problem.
Philadelphia has the superior starting pitcher, the fresher bullpen, home-field advantage and an offense that has finally begun producing consistently. If the Phillies win, I think there's enough probability that they win comfortably to justify taking +104 rather than laying -205.
Official Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+104)
Prop Pick: Jesús Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts
If FanDuel posts Luzardo at 6.5 strikeouts, the over is the player prop I want.
Luzardo has 28 strikeouts over his past three starts and 185 on the season. He has gone at least 6⅔ innings in each of those three outings, which provides both the swing-and-miss ability and workload necessary to reach seven strikeouts.
The price matters. I'd play over 6.5 at -130 or better. If FanDuel moves the line to 7.5 or heavily juices the over, the edge becomes considerably less attractive.
Prop Pick: Jesús Luzardo Over 6.5 strikeouts — if available at -130 or better.
Prediction: Phillies 5, Cardinals 2.
Odds are subject to change. Please wager responsibly.
