That part is straightforward. The Braves enter Friday five games ahead in the National League East, and with 28 games remaining, the deficit is significant without being insurmountable. Philadelphia has played its way back into a race that looked considerably less interesting a month ago.
The more immediate concern, though, is behind them.
The Phillies begin a three-game series against the Angels holding the second National League wild-card spot. San Diego owns the final berth, and Arizona sits just 1½ games behind the Padres. The Phillies’ cushion over the playoff line is only two games.
And after Anaheim, they go directly to Arizona.
That changes the meaning of this weekend.
The Angels are 52-82. They are last in the American League West. The Phillies are 74-60 and trying to create enough separation that next week’s series at Chase Field does not become something larger.
This is the soft part of the trip only if Philadelphia treats it that way.
The Phillies salvaged the finale in Seattle on Wednesday after dropping the first two games of the series, halting a brief skid that followed a nine-game winning streak. They have still won eight of 10, but late August is when losing series to bad teams starts to become expensive.
Friday may actually be the most difficult pitching matchup of the three.
Andrew Painter starts opposite Reid Detmers, who has quietly put together a strong season despite everything around him. Painter is 3-8 with a 6.04 ERA and 79 strikeouts. Detmers is 4-8 with a 3.62 ERA and 172 strikeouts.
Painter’s last start was one of his best, seven innings of one-run baseball, and that is the version the Phillies need against a left-hander who has been much better than the Angels’ record suggests.
Saturday is different.
Cristopher Sánchez takes the ball, and there is no need anymore to write about him as if he is proving he belongs near the front of this rotation.
His work already says that.
Sánchez is 16-4 with a 2.62 ERA and 194 strikeouts. More relevant to this weekend is how well he has pitched through August. Over his last five starts, he has allowed seven earned runs in 29 2/3 innings, a 2.12 ERA, with 37 strikeouts.
Before St. Louis scored four runs against him Sunday, Sánchez had allowed only three earned runs over his previous four starts.
He opened August with six scoreless innings and 11 strikeouts in Baltimore. Five days later, he allowed two runs over five innings against Washington. He then threw six scoreless innings in St. Louis before limiting Miami to one run over six.
That is not a hot week.
That is a pitcher carrying his form deep into a pennant race.
The Angels counter Saturday with Ryan Johnson, who enters 3-7 with a 5.75 ERA. On paper, it is the matchup Philadelphia should like most.
Then comes Sunday, and Zack Wheeler.
That is where this series gets considerably more interesting.
Wheeler enters 10-5 with a 3.40 ERA, numbers that still look perfectly respectable in isolation. His recent work does not.
His August has been ugly.
Across five starts this month, Wheeler has worked only 21 1/3 innings and allowed 18 earned runs, good for a 7.59 ERA. He has walked 15 batters, surrendered six home runs and struck out 25.
For a pitcher whose control and ability to dominate the strike zone have long been among his defining traits, the walks stand out almost as much as the runs.
And Monday in Seattle was the low point.
Wheeler lasted four innings and allowed eight runs on nine hits. He walked five and surrendered four home runs while throwing 103 pitches. His Game Score was 11.
That outing did more than inflate his ERA.
It continued a pattern that has developed since the break.
On Aug. 7 against Toronto, Wheeler allowed four runs in 5 1/3 innings and walked five. Five days later in St. Louis, he allowed four earned runs in five innings. He held Miami to two runs over five on Aug. 18, but again walked four. Then came Seattle.
There has been one strange interruption in the stretch: two scoreless innings in Baltimore on Aug. 2 before that game ended after six innings. Otherwise, Wheeler has not completed six innings in any August start.
That is the concern.
The Phillies do not need Wheeler to validate his résumé. They know who he is and what he has meant to their rotation.
They do need to know what version of him they are taking into September.
The presence of Sánchez makes the question less desperate but more fascinating. Philadelphia suddenly has another starter pitching like a legitimate postseason Game 1 option. That does not diminish Wheeler’s importance. It raises the stakes around getting him right.
Sunday against Yusei Kikuchi, who enters 0-4 with a 6.25 ERA, gives Wheeler another opportunity to begin reversing the trend.
The Phillies’ offense has its own reasons for optimism. Kyle Schwarber reached 40 home runs Wednesday, while Bryce Harper also went deep in Seattle. The easiest version of this lineup remains the one in which Harper creates traffic and Schwarber changes the scoreboard.
They may need that again this weekend.
Because the larger picture is becoming difficult to miss.
Atlanta is five games ahead.
Arizona is moving closer.
The Phillies can gain ground in one race and protect themselves in the other without playing either opponent.
That is what makes these three games matter.
A strong weekend in Anaheim sends Philadelphia to Phoenix with breathing room. A bad one could turn next week into something uncomfortably close to a direct fight for postseason position.
In April, dropping two of three to a 52-win team is background noise.
In late August, it can change the shape of September.
The Phillies have spent months putting themselves back in position to play meaningful baseball.
Now comes the less glamorous part of the job.
Beat the teams you should beat.
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