The Phillies are running out of season.
Not out of chances. Not out of hope. But definitely out of room to keep waiting for the team they expected to become.
Thursday night’s 7-1 win over Minnesota at the Field of Dreams moved Philadelphia to 65-58 with 39 games remaining. The Phillies entered Friday occupying the National League’s final Wild Card position, one-half game behind San Diego and one-half game ahead of Arizona. Chicago has opened a much more comfortable cushion atop the Wild Card standings.
The NL East is another matter.
Atlanta is 73-48, nine games ahead of Philadelphia. With 39 games left, the division is not mathematically gone, but realistically the Phillies’ path to October runs through the Wild Card.
That should simplify everything.
Thirty-nine games. No more waiting. No more assuming the talent eventually will take care of things.
Kyle Schwarber essentially said as much after Thursday’s win.
“We know what’s at stake,” Schwarber told MLB.com.
The Phillies do. Now they have to play like it.
And three things, specifically, need to happen.
First, the rotation has to start carrying the team again.
The most encouraging development in Iowa had nothing to do with the cornfield.
It was Aaron Nola.
Nola struck out nine and allowed one run over five innings Thursday. More importantly, he has a 2.91 ERA over his past four starts and has surrendered three runs or fewer in 12 of his past 15.
“Obviously, it's been an up-and-down season, but lately I've been feeling really good,” Nola told MLB.com afterward.
That is potentially enormous.
The Phillies do not need Nola to suddenly rediscover his 2018 form. They need him to become dependable every fifth day.
They also need Zack Wheeler to look like Zack Wheeler again.
There is enough ability in a rotation featuring Wheeler, Nola, Cristopher Sánchez and Andrew Painter for the Phillies to win stretches of games even when the offense sputters. Painter recently carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning against St. Louis. Sánchez has already demonstrated an ability to dominate a lineup. Nola suddenly looks sharper.
That is where Philadelphia can create an advantage over the clubs chasing the same three Wild Card spots.
Starters need to work into the sixth and seventh innings. They need to turn over leads instead of deficits. And they need to prevent Don Mattingly from asking an already-taxed bullpen to collect 12 or 15 outs every night.
That is October baseball before October arrives.
Secondly, the offense has to stop wasting innings.
Schwarber can carry an offense for stretches. He demonstrated it again Thursday with two home runs.
He cannot be the entire plan.
The Phillies have spent too much of this season turning scoring opportunities into empty innings. Their 7-1 loss to St. Louis on Wednesday was another example: six hits, one run and a 1-for-8 performance with runners in scoring position.
Bryce Harper acknowledged his own responsibility shortly before the Trade Deadline.
“The last month, I haven't done my job to the best of my ability,” Harper told MLB.com.
That is the player who matters most here.
Harper does not need to single-handedly drag the Phillies into October, but Philadelphia needs its stars producing like stars. Trea Turner has to create traffic. Harper has to punish mistakes. Schwarber has to continue supplying power. And the hitters behind them have to convert opportunities instead of repeatedly forcing the offense to start over.
The Phillies entered Friday having scored 542 runs while allowing 543. Their minus-1 run differential produces an expected record of 61-62 — four wins worse than their actual record.
That is the profile of a team surviving the race, not controlling it.
There are 39 games left to change that.
Lastly, Mattingly has to establish a bullpen he can trust.
The final six weeks cannot become bullpen roulette.
Philadelphia has already seen what happens when its small group of trusted relievers is forced to carry too much.
During the Toronto series last weekend, Orion Kerkering pitched for the fourth time in five days and sixth time in eight. Jonathan Bowlan and José Alvarado had each worked three of four days, while Jhoan Duran was also appearing for the fourth time in five. The bullpen blew multi-run eighth-inning leads on consecutive days.
“We've been leaning on these guys,” Mattingly told MLB.com. “They're pitching on short rest.”
That cannot be the September formula.
The Phillies need defined lanes.
They need Duran available for the most important outs. They need Kerkering fresh enough for his stuff to play at full strength. They need Alvarado consistently providing another dependable late-inning option.
And somebody else has to emerge.
Because if every close game requires the same three relievers, there eventually will be a bill to pay — either in September or, if the Phillies get there, in October.
The Field of Dreams win was a good night. Maybe it becomes something more.
But a team sitting 65-58 cannot afford to confuse one memorable victory with a turnaround.
Get the rotation rolling. Start cashing in scoring opportunities. Stabilize the bullpen.
Do those three things, and the Phillies have enough talent to stop merely occupying the final playoff position and begin creating separation from Arizona, San Diego, Miami and St. Louis.
Thirty-nine games remain.
The division is nearly gone.
The season isn't.
But the time for waiting on this team to turn the corner has ended.
Now the Phillies have to turn it themselves.
The final six weeks cannot become bullpen roulette.
Philadelphia has already seen what happens when its small group of trusted relievers is forced to carry too much.
During the Toronto series last weekend, Orion Kerkering pitched for the fourth time in five days and sixth time in eight. Jonathan Bowlan and José Alvarado had each worked three of four days, while Jhoan Duran was also appearing for the fourth time in five. The bullpen blew multi-run eighth-inning leads on consecutive days.
“We've been leaning on these guys,” Mattingly told MLB.com. “They're pitching on short rest.”
That cannot be the September formula.
The Phillies need defined lanes.
They need Duran available for the most important outs. They need Kerkering fresh enough for his stuff to play at full strength. They need Alvarado consistently providing another dependable late-inning option.
And somebody else has to emerge.
Because if every close game requires the same three relievers, there eventually will be a bill to pay — either in September or, if the Phillies get there, in October.
The Field of Dreams win was a good night. Maybe it becomes something more.
But a team sitting 65-58 cannot afford to confuse one memorable victory with a turnaround.
Get the rotation rolling. Start cashing in scoring opportunities. Stabilize the bullpen.
Do those three things, and the Phillies have enough talent to stop merely occupying the final playoff position and begin creating separation from Arizona, San Diego, Miami and St. Louis.
Thirty-nine games remain.
The division is nearly gone.
The season isn't.
But the time for waiting on this team to turn the corner has ended.
Now the Phillies have to turn it themselves.
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