The Phillies are coming to New York with a seven-game lead in the National League East, their largest cushion of the year. And the opponent waiting for them at Citi Field on Monday night is the one team that once sat five and a half games in front of them.
That was June 12, the last day the Mets looked like a juggernaut. They were 45–24, the best record in baseball, and Philadelphia was still chasing. Since then? The Phillies have played .597 ball, second-best in the National League, behind only the Brewers, while the Mets have unraveled at 24–37, tied for the fifth-worst record in the sport. That swing has flipped the division race upside down, leaving the Phillies chasing more than just October: they’re hunting their second straight NL East crown and a first-round bye.
The weekend could have told a very different story. The Mets did enough to take two of three from the Braves, just enough to keep their grip on the final wild card from slipping away. But Sunday’s collapse meant they squandered their chance to make up real ground. While New York let a series sweep vanish into thin air, the Phillies were busy taking two of three from the last-place Nationals, and stretching their division lead to seven games.
For all the unraveling New York has done, a 7–17 mark over its last 24 games, the season series still looms large. Seven more meetings remain with the Phillies, including a four-game set in Philadelphia from September 8–11, and those games could shape not just the standings but the storylines of October.
Sunday was a snapshot of where things stand. In Philly, Ranger Suárez carved up the Nationals with 11 strikeouts over seven shutout innings, while Rafael Marchan drove in every run of a 3–2 Phillies win. In Atlanta, the Mets were 10 outs from a sweep before watching the Braves score twice in the sixth and twice in the eighth, all with two outs, to steal a 4–3 victory. What might have been momentum for New York became another reminder of why this season keeps slipping away.
The standings say everything. The Mets are now a season-high seven games back in the East. Their lead over Cincinnati for the final wild card is down to a game and a half. They’ve lost eight of 13 since August 8. And in a year where finishing games has been their greatest flaw, the four runs they allowed Sunday after two were already out summed up the story.
And now comes Philadelphia. The rivalry, already charged, feels heavier in this moment. The Mets swept the Phillies in April at Citi Field. The Phillies answered by taking two of three in June. The October memories are fresher: New York arriving as the last wild card a year ago, then bouncing the division champs in the NLDS. Both teams know how quickly a season can turn.
The pitching matchup fits the stakes. Kodai Senga, who carries a 7–5 record and a 2.58 ERA, takes the ball for New York. He’s coming off a rough start Wednesday in Washington, where he gave up five runs (four earned) in five innings. But his track record against the Phillies is excellent: 1–1 with a 1.46 ERA in two career regular-season starts, plus two innings of one-run ball as an opener in Game 1 of last year’s Division Series.
Cristopher Sánchez, one of Philadelphia’s quiet revelations of the season, will counter. He’s 11–4 with a 2.46 ERA, didn’t factor into the decision against Seattle last Tuesday despite giving up just two runs over 6 1/3 innings, and has a 3.89 ERA in 39 1/3 innings of work against the Mets across 10 regular-season appearances. His postseason line against New York includes five innings and two runs allowed in Game 2 of last year’s NLDS — another decision he didn’t factor into but one the Phillies went on to win, 7–6.
The math favors Philadelphia now. They’re 2 1/2 games ahead of the Dodgers and Padres — co-leaders of the NL West — in the chase for a playoff bye. They’re 22 games over .500, a high-water mark in a season that’s felt steadier than most. But with New York looming this week and a four-game series against them in Philadelphia still to come in September, the margin for error is never as wide as it looks.
Because in this rivalry, nothing is settled until it’s settled.
Pitching Matchups
Monday: LHP Cristopher Sanchez (11-4, 2.46) vs. RHP Kodai Senga (7-5, 2.58)
Tuesday: LHP Jesus Luzardo (12-6, 4.10) vs. LHP Sean Manaea (1-2, 5.15)
Wednesday: RHP Taijuan Walker (4-6, 3.44) vs. RHP Nolan McLean (2-0, 1.46)
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