For the third straight year, the Phillies enter the season with the talent to win it all. But here’s the catch—actually doing it. Because "there’s always next year" eventually fades into "what if?"
And yet, the computers are at it again, dampening the hype before it even begins. PECOTA projects the Phillies to win just 85.8 games, trailing both the Mets (91.3) and Braves (92.7) in the NL East. The system’s track record with the Phillies has been mixed—spot-on in 2022, way off in 2023—but it seldom cuts them any slack. Maybe it doesn’t know how to quantify Bryce Harper-sized moments. Or the difference between a good team and a great team that knows how to shine in October.
PECOTA, which runs thousands of simulations to predict outcomes, might not predict the Phils’ success, but projections rarely do—after all, they’re just a snapshot of what’s most likely, not what’s possible. And the Phillies have more than just the usual talent—they’ve got the perfect moment staring them in the face.
They’re not just in a championship window; they’re staring straight through it. After two consecutive deep postseason runs, they’ve assembled a roster built for now. And the urgency? It’s real. The Braves are the standard in the NL East. The Mets just added Juan Soto and strengthened their pitching staff. The Dodgers have endless resources. But the Phillies have something equally valuable: a battle-tested core and a rotation that could go toe-to-toe with anyone.
This might just be one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola anchor the rotation, while top prospect Andrew Painter should be ready to make his midseason debut. Alongside them, Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez, and Jesús Luzardo offer a depth that can dominate any lineup. In 2024, Wheeler and Nola combined for 46 quality starts, a testament to their durability and elite performance. Since 2021, Wheeler leads all MLB pitchers in fWAR (22.7); Nola ranks fourth (17.7). Nola leads the majors in innings pitched over that span (778.2), while Wheeler ranks third (758.1). Wheeler’s 2024 was a Cy Young-caliber season—leading the NL in WHIP (0.96), opponents’ batting average (.191), and quality starts (26), while finishing second in ERA (2.57) and Cy Young voting.
But it’s the lefties who hold the key. Sánchez made huge strides last year—now he needs to keep building. Suárez looked like a Cy Young contender early in 2024, posting a 1.83 ERA in his first 16 starts, only to see injuries derail his season. Luzardo, if healthy, has top-of-the-rotation stuff. If those three stay healthy and produce, this staff could be a difference-maker come October.
Still, the Phillies can’t afford mistakes. The Braves will be dangerous, especially with a fully healthy roster. The Mets, now led by Steve Cohen’s spending, just added one of the best hitters in baseball, Juan Soto—an October game-wrecker. The Mets are a real threat. And while the Phillies have a top-tier roster, they need to prove they’re better than the rest.
They know it too. This team has proven it can go deep into October. But last season’s ending still stings, just like the 2023 NLCS collapse—two chances at home, two quiet nights at the plate. That’s why 2025 isn’t just another opportunity—it might be the final shot with this core intact.
Of course, pitching alone won’t win a championship. The offense, led by Bryce Harper, remains one of the most dangerous in the league. It’s hard to believe, but this will be Harper’s seventh season in Philadelphia. And while he’s done everything a superstar can do for a franchise—152 home runs, a .924 OPS, and one of the most legendary postseason blasts in Citizens Bank Park history—the one thing still missing is the parade. The ring.
But Harper’s not alone. Trea Turner rebounded in the second half of 2024, looking like the superstar the Phillies envisioned when they signed him. J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos provide a veteran core that knows how to rise when the stakes are high. In a league where youth often takes center stage, the Phillies have a potential future ace in Andrew Painter, whose midseason debut could provide a jolt like Spencer Strider did for the Braves in 2022.
The bullpen, too, remains a strength, with fireballer Orion Kerkering and the lefty weapon José Alvarado anchoring it. Jordan Romano will start the season as the closer, a position that haunted the Phillies in 2024. If he settles in, the late innings should be much smoother.
On paper, this is a team built for October. But right now, just getting there isn’t enough. The last time the Phillies had a championship-caliber roster, they won it all in 2008, only to fall short in the following seasons. This team can’t afford to follow that path. Not with this core. Not with this window.
There’s more urgency in Philadelphia than anywhere else. The Braves and Mets are coming. October is coming. And if the Phillies don’t finish the job now, the question won’t be "when" they win it all. It’ll be whether they ever do.
