The Phillies have agreed to a one-year, $10 million contract with outfielder Max Kepler, pending a physical, according to multiple sources. The deal, yet to be announced by the club, raises eyebrows for several reasons.
Kepler, 31, is coming off a challenging 2024 campaign with the Minnesota Twins. Plagued by patellar tendinitis in his left knee and hip issues, he was limited to 105 games, slashing .253/.302/.380 with eight home runs and a .682 OPS. Those numbers marked career lows for the left-handed hitter, whose best season came in 2019 when he hit 36 homers with a .855 OPS. Despite flashes of productivity in recent years, including a .260/.332/.484 line with 24 homers and a 120 OPS+ in 2023, Kepler hasn’t consistently replicated his All-Star-caliber form from five years ago.
The Phillies, however, may be betting on Kepler’s track record and underlying metrics. Known for his strike-zone discipline, he has swung at only 25.2% of pitches outside the zone since 2019, a figure well below league average and an area where the Phillies struggled last season. For a team prone to chasing pitches and striking out, Kepler’s approach offers a potential course correction.
Defensively, Kepler has been one of baseball’s most reliable right fielders, leading the position with 57 Outs Above Average from 2016 to 2024. He also ranks fourth in Defensive Runs Saved over that span. But with Nick Castellanos entrenched in right field, the Phillies face a decision: shift Castellanos to left, where he’s less experienced, or move Kepler to left field, a position he has never played in the majors. Either way, Kepler’s defensive prowess could be a valuable addition, especially at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies’ outfield now features Kepler, Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, and Johan Rojas. It’s conceivable Marsh and Rojas could platoon in center, while Kepler takes over left field. This configuration could address the team’s offensive deficiencies; the Phillies ranked 20th in center-field OPS (.644) and tied for 15th in left-field OPS (.710) last season.
Kepler’s signing is the Phillies’ second major league deal of the offseason, following a one-year, $8.5 million contract with reliever Jordan Romano. Both moves reflect a cautious approach to the team’s payroll, which now sits near the fourth luxury-tax threshold of $301 million. Each dollar spent beyond that threshold will incur a 110% penalty, a reality that looms large in shaping further offseason decisions.
Despite these financial considerations, the Phillies still have areas to address. They could use a fifth starter, another late-inning reliever, and potentially a corner infielder. Alec Bohm has been the subject of trade speculation, though team officials maintain they aren’t actively shopping him.
For Kepler, the change of scenery offers a chance to rebuild his value ahead of returning to free agency next winter. Signed as an international free agent out of Berlin, Germany, in 2009, Kepler spent his entire 10-year career with the Twins. He’s fourth among Minnesota outfielders in games played, trailing only franchise legends Kirby Puckett, Torii Hunter, and Tony Oliva. His tenure included eight consecutive Opening Day starts in right field, tying Oliva for the club record.
The Phillies hope Kepler’s perseverance and skill set can help them close the gap on their rivals in 2025. Whether this move sparks more offseason activity or simply fits into a larger puzzle remains to be seen. For now, it’s a roll of the dice that encapsulates the risk-reward calculus of building a contender.
