Despite the past six weeks of underwhelming performance, there’s still a belief that this Phillies team is good. After a record-breaking start to the season, the club is now enduring a dramatic course correction, spiraling down in a manner few could have anticipated. As poorly as this team is playing—and it's been ugly—this isn’t the real Phillies. So, the question becomes: what is?
For now, something has to change to steady the ship. On Tuesday night, following a disastrous 5-0 loss to the Marlins, manager Rob Thomson stopped short of admitting the lineup needs a shakeup, but it’s clear that’s exactly what’s needed.
Thomson could opt to drop Trea Turner in the lineup, who has looked lost at both the plate and in the field. Turner's OPS has plummeted nearly 100 points over the last month. But the necessary changes might be more significant than a simple lineup adjustment.
Sending Brandon Marsh or Bryson Stott down to Triple-A Lehigh Valley for a brief stint could be on the table. Marsh is hitting just .143 over the last 30 days, striking out 29 times in 77 plate appearances. Stott has been marginally better, batting .209, but he’s drawn just one walk in his last 67 at-bats.
The Phillies made a similar surprise move in May of 2022, sending a struggling José Alvarado down to Triple-A after a series of poor performances marked by lackluster control. When he returned in August, he was a key factor in the Phillies' run to the World Series.
It's clear Thomson can't afford to wait for things to turn around on their own. The Phillies enter play on Wednesday with just a six-game lead over Atlanta, a team they'll face next weekend. By then, that series could be a battle for the division lead—a hard reality to swallow, given the blistering start the Phillies had to open the season.
On July 27, FanGraphs had the Phillies' odds of winning the World Series at 16.8%, the highest mark for the club all season. That figure now sits at 11.6%. At its highest, FanGraphs projected the Phillies to win 99 games, now that number is down to 92.
