SAN DIEGO -- Projections are fun to look at and dissect, but they aren't a guarantee of anything. It's important to reinforce that truth before moving forward with this piece.
Dating back to 2010 (not including 2019), the team that won the World Series has finished with an average of 46 WAR (Wins Above Replacement). The highest total was the 2018 Red Sox at 55.7, and the lowest was the 2011 Cardinals at 36.9.
On average, 63 percent of the 46 WAR came from offensive output, while the remaining 37 percent came from pitching.
Offense = 29 WAR
Pitching = 17 WAR
TOTAL = 46 WAR
There is no single metric to predict a pennant or a World Series appearance, but WAR can give you a glance into the quality of roster composition to determine areas of strength and weakness.
For the unfamiliar, WAR is a metric that measures a player's value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he's worth than a replacement-level player at his same position. It quantifies each player's value in terms of a specific numbers of wins. And because WAR factors in a positional adjustment, it is well suited for comparing players who play different defensive positions.
It's a complicated formula, but for offensive players it takes multiple statistics into account, including baserunning and defense.
The Phillies last season posted a total of 42.5 WAR, 20.8 from the offense, and 21.7 from pitching.
So, how could the Phillies reach the 46 WAR average in 2023?
Using FanGraphs projections for 2023 and including the addition of Trea Turner, the Phillies project next season to post 27.9 offensive WAR and 17 pitching WAR. The 44.9 WAR figure is roughly one less than the 46 WAR of the previous 12 World Series winners.
We know the Phillies are in the market for a mid-rotation starting pitcher, so let's assume the addition possesses a projected WAR of 2, pushing the projected pitching total to 19 WAR. Combined, this gets the club to essentially 47 WAR, a smidge above the average (46) of each World Series winner (minus 2020) dating back to 2010.
This is not a perfect attempt, by any stretch, to determine the Phillies' success in 2023. WAR has flaws, and my calculations are on the back of a coffee-stained napkin here at the Winter Meetings. Even so, it shows the addition of Turner puts the Phillies in an elite group of clubs that should be a favorite to reach the World Series.
