PBR - The graph below shows the raw figures for each club in each of the
three categories. To compare the clubs (within the National League) I
calculated how many standard deviations each club was from the average
in the three categories. I then added the three standard deviations
together for the Total Stan. D (which you see below).
Using regression coefficients from earlier research, I placed the
individual standard deviations into the following formula:
(0.4999+(0.0052*OPS s.d.)+(0.0724* RDiff s.d.)+(0.0061*WHIP s.d.)). This
formula produces the Estimated Winning Percentage you see below. You
can then compare the Estimated Winning Percentage to the Actual Winning
Percentage and determine how much luck - good or bad - has impacted a
particular team.
