The Phillies are 22 games better than the Angels.
That doesn’t mean Friday night is some automatic lay-the-number-and-go-to-bed situation.
Philadelphia opens a three-game series at Angel Stadium at 9:38 p.m. with Andrew Painter facing Reid Detmers. The Phillies enter 74-60 and remain firmly in the National League playoff race, while Los Angeles sits at 52-82. FanDuel Sportsbook made Philadelphia a road favorite Friday, with the total set at eight runs. The Under has moved to -114.
Here’s the problem if you're looking to blindly back the better team: Detmers might be the best starting pitcher in this game right now.
The Angels left-hander enters with a 4-8 record and 3.62 ERA, but forget the win-loss record. Detmers has been outstanding since the All-Star break, posting a 1.56 ERA and 0.84 WHIP across seven starts. He has 172 strikeouts in 149 innings this season, and his 28.5-percent strikeout rate puts him among baseball's better swing-and-miss starters.
That's why laying a Phillies moneyline price isn't as easy as looking at 74-60 against 52-82 and saying Philadelphia is the obvious side.
The Phillies also haven't been nearly as dangerous offensively away from Citizens Bank Park. They entered Friday hitting just .226 on the road with a .294 on-base percentage. Meanwhile, the Angels have been an Under machine: 77 of their first 131 games with a posted total finished Under, and their offense owns the lowest home OPS in baseball at .633.
Now we get to Painter.
His season line — 3-8 with a 6.04 ERA — isn't pretty. Nobody needs to dress that up.
But his last start was different.
Painter held St. Louis to one run over seven innings in Saturday's 12-3 Phillies win, striking out eight without issuing a walk. For a rookie whose season has included plenty of hard lessons, it was arguably his most complete major-league performance.
And this is a good place to find out whether it was the beginning of something.
Los Angeles ranks 24th in the majors in runs scored and has been particularly vulnerable against right-handed pitching, striking out in roughly 25 percent of its plate appearances against righties — the second-highest rate in baseball.
That leads directly to the best look on the game.
BEST BET: UNDER 8 RUNS (-114, FanDuel Sportsbook)
I'm not trying to get cute here.
Detmers is pitching too well to assume the Phillies are going to hang five or six runs on him. The Angels haven't hit enough at home to make Painter's season ERA an automatic invitation to play the Over. Los Angeles has also played 31 of its last 40 games to the Under, while Philadelphia has gone Under in 31 of its last 50 road games.
At eight, a 4-4 game gives you the push. That's important.
I'd much rather pay -114 on Under 8 than lay a heavier price on Philadelphia and hope Painter's improvement continues against a bad Angels club.
PLAYER PROP: REID DETMERS OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS — PLUS MONEY ONLY
This is where price matters.
FanDuel is currently charging -166 on Detmers Under 6.5 strikeouts. No thanks.
That price means you're being asked to lay substantial juice on Detmers failing to reach seven strikeouts when he owns 172 punchouts in 149 innings and a 28.5-percent strikeout rate.
Detmers has recorded seven or more strikeouts in 11 starts this season and has been especially dangerous at Angel Stadium, where he has piled up 104 strikeouts in 85 innings. Philadelphia also averages roughly 8.8 strikeouts per road game.
Yes, Detmers has finished with five, six, 11 and five strikeouts in his four August starts. That's why I wouldn't touch the Over at a bad number.
But betting is about price.
If FanDuel is willing to give us plus money on Over 6.5, I'd rather take the upside on a pitcher with this kind of strikeout profile than pay -166 hoping he stops at six.
The play: Under 8 (-114).
The prop: Detmers Over 6.5 strikeouts, provided the price remains plus money.
The Angels may be playing out the string.
Detmers isn't pitching like it.
