Additions of McCutchen and Segura should increase Phillies win total in 2019

Phillies offense should be better in 2019 with Segura and McCutchen
The Phillies may not have landed a superstar yet, but the additions of Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen should improve the offense considerably in 2019.

The Phillies finished last year with the second worst contact rate in all of baseball at 74.7-percent and failed far too often to manufacture runs. The two newest additions should be able to change that though, as McCutchen brings a career contact rate of 79.4-percent to the Phils while Segura carries an 85.6-percent career contact rate.

In combination with the poor contact rate, the Phillies also had the fourth highest swing and miss rate in the majors at 11.6-percent. For comparison, McCutchen has an 8.8-percent rate over his career while Segura has a 6.9-percent rate.

These numbers may not seem like a big deal, but they are, particularly near the top and middle of the order.

Looking at this another way and using WAR figures from this past season, with the additions of McCutchen and Segura, and the subtractions of Carlos Santana and J.P. Crawford, the Phillies have gained 5.4 WAR - meaning if the output in 2019 from all four players mirrored last season, the Phillies would be expected to win about five more games, giving them 85 wins.

That's not a scientific way to project wins, but it at the very least demonstrates how these two can improve the Phillies offense.

Will 85 wins get the Phillies into the postseason? No, probably not. However, the Phillies are expected to make more moves even beyond the Winter Meetings, including potentially landing a megastar in Bryce Haper or Manny Machado.

It's a marathon, not a sprint.
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Follow Patrick on Twitter: @PGordonPBR

BY PATRICK GORDON
Managing Editor
pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com

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