Projection systems bullish on Phillies as Spring Training nears

Phillies projections from PECOTA and FanGraphs
With Spring Training upon us, it's a good time to examine how two of the more popular projection systems view the Phillies odds of competing in 2018.

PECOTA (https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/)
Released earlier this week by Baseball Prospectus, PECOTA predicts the Phillies to finish third in the NL East with a 78-84 record. The win total is an increase of 12 in comparison to last season. PECOTA projects the Phillies to score 743 runs while surrendering 779, the third most in the National League. Pitching, obviously, is a concern.

Offensively, PECOTA projects the Phillies to be middle of the pack in the National League with the 779 runs scored ranking as seventh most.

Individually, PECOTA predicts Rhys Hoskins will be the Phillies top offensive threat hitting .259 with 36 homers and 101 RBIs. Aaron Nola projects as the Phillies' best hurler with a 3.45 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 17 quality starts.

FanGraphs / ZiPS (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-philadelphia-phillies/)
FanGraphs is bullish on the Phillies and their rebuild efforts entering 2018. The ZiPS projection system has the club winning just 74 games and predicts pitching for the club will regress, surrendering more runs than last year. The projected 74 wins are seventh lowest in all of baseball and topped in the National League only by the Padres and Marlins.

Individually, FanGraphs projects Hoskins and Nola to be the most impactful players on the roster.

Over the coming weeks as Spring Training progresses we'll release our own set of projections and provide commentary on other published prediction systems. We'll also release individual player projections and examine how the Phillies compare to other clubs across baseball.

Baseball is finally near.
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Follow Patrick on Twitter: @PGordonPBR

BY PATRICK GORDON
Managing Editor
pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com

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