Monday, December 23, 2013

Early Projections Show No Improvement For 2014 Phillies

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
December 23, 2013, 8:45 p.m.
@Philabaseball

Considering Opening Day is a little more than three months away, the Philadelphia Baseball Review has begun analyzing the various 2014 projection models and will provide insight into each as they are released over the coming weeks.

Today, we examine the Steamer Projections for 2014.

Fangraphs.com has included the Steamer projections on each player's page, so I went ahead and put together an Excel sheet with an expected 25-man roster for the Phillies. I than collected each player's WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and added them all together for a projected team total WAR of 24.5.

For those unfamiliar with WAR, the metric is an attempt to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic.

The definition at Fangraphs is pretty clear: “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a minor leaguer or someone from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?"

So, what does a projected 24.5 WAR mean?

Well, experts of the statistic contend a team comprised of entirely replacement level players would likely win 48 games. For the 2014 Phillies we can take the 24.5 projected WAR and add 48 wins for a projected win total of 73.

Yes, 73, the same number of wins the Phillies collected last season.

Marlon Byrd, Wil Nieves, and Brad Lincoln seemingly make no difference.

This article is the first in many we'll publish over the coming weeks about the 2014 Phillies and projections.

- The Philadelphia Baseball Review is the top baseball news blog in the Philadelphia region, providing news coverage and analysis of the 2014 Phillies.

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