Sunday, March 17, 2013

Baseball Betting Tips: Creating Power Rankings and Baseball Odds

BY CHASE McDUFFY | Betting Veteran
@Philabaseaball

Creating money lines in baseball is actually a simple process and can go a long way in extending your bankroll. 

The best time to place a wager on a baseball contest is when you see an inefficiency in a line. For example, say you like the Phillies as -110 favorites at home against the Pirates. You play around with the numbers and believe the Phillies should be something closer to a -120 favorite than -110. 

Bam. You now have an inefficiency and a line worthy of your cash because you only have to lay out $110 to win $100, not $120.

But how do you know the game should be slanted -120 Phillies and not -110? There are dozens of ways to create your own lines and that's what I'll show you here. 

Some methods require a decent amount of advanced statistical research while other methods are simply a matter of dividing a few numbers.

Today I'll show you an easy way to find out if a line has value worthy of laying cash. 

First, take a look at ESPN's RPI system - RPI stands for Relative Power Index - and look at the figures for the two clubs involved in the contest you are betting on. In this instance, let's take the Phillies and the Pirates.

The Phillies have an RPI of .499 and the Pirates have an RPI of .488. To compensate for home field advantage you want to add .15 to the home club, so the Phillies become .513.

Now follow these steps:

  1. Divide the higher RPI by the lower RPI  |  (.513/.488 = 1.0512)
  2. Multiply the result by 100  |  (1.0512 * 100 = 105)
  3. Add 15 if the higher ranking club is at home  |  (105 + 15 = 120)
  4. Compare lines  |  The book has the Phillies as -110, meaning I need to wager $110 to win $100.  My lines, however, indicate the Phillies really should be $120 to win $100 so I've found an inefficiency with value in my favor. 
If I liked the Phillies at -110 and now see the true value to be somewhere closer to -120 then I know I've found a decent play and something worth possibly betting on.

Adding this trick to your baseball betting arsenal will assist in your profitability over a long season.

- Chase McDuffy is a veteran sports gambler and has worked for various tout Web sites. He will be sharing his insights with The Review throughout the 2013 baseball season.

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