Saturday, January 5, 2013

Phillies 2013 Projections: Models forecast Phils to score 746 runs

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

It rarely is a good idea to rely entirely on one projection system when several exist, so over the next few weeks I'll be comparing the various models as they relate to the Phillies and offering analysis. 

Today, I'm looking specifically at OPS in the 2013 ZiPS and Bill James projection models.

Why OPS? 

OPS estimates total offensive production (except base running) and can be used as a factor in estimating total team runs scored. True, most projection models include individual runs scored but the figures are traditionally based on individual forecasts and not in the context of the team, so simply adding the runs scored is often a baseless exercise.

Projected Runs Scored = (2*OPS) - 743 | For a complete explanation of this formula, click here.

Admittedly, some corners have been cut. First, rather than find an absolute team OPS based on the culmination of individual statistics I've averaged each individual OPS projection to find a team average. Secondly, playing time has not been taken into consideration. This means Domonic Brown's OPS is weighted the same as John Mayberry's, yet their playing time may differ significantly.

The average Phillies' OPS is .734 via the ZiPS model and .755 via the Bill James model, so using the Projected Runs Scored formula ZiPS predicts the Phillies to score 725 runs while the Bill James model forecasts 767.

Averaged together, the ZiPS and Bill James models project the Phillies to score 746 runs.  For reference, the National League average of team runs scored in 2012 was 683 (see chart below).


So we now have a runs scored estimate for the Phillies in 2013. Tomorrow, I'll use the ZiPS and Bill James models to find a runs allowed estimate. Combined, we can determine a win-loss prediction using these two projection models.

- Patrick Gordon is the editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Contact him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com or @Philabaseball on Twitter.

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