Friday, December 28, 2012

Bill James Projections: Phillies Pitching 2013

By PATRICK GORDON | Managing Editor
@Philabaseball

The Bill James projections were released a few weeks back so here is a look at the expectations of the Phillies' pitching staff.

Remember, these projections assume each player is healthy and available for 162 games. Projections were not available for several relievers expected to be on the roster in 2013.

To start, it looks as if Bill James expects Roy Halladay to bounce back after dealing with injuries for much of the 2012 season. His ERA is projected to drop by almost a run and a half while his WHIP also is expected to improve.

The projections for Lee and Hamels seem reasonable. Both pitchers put up similar numbers in 2012 (except for Lee in wins).

James projects Kendrick to take a step backwards after putting together a pair of solid seasons and consecutive seasons of positive ERA+.

Lannan's projection is difficult to decipher because his role in Washington last year was never truly defined. James obviously assumed Lannan would either be in the bullpen for 2013 or again spend the majority of the season in the minors. Honestly, I don't see either of those options becoming a reality unless someone really puts together an impressive performance in spring training to lock down the No. 5 spot in the rotation.

As for the bullpen, James expects solid showings from Jonathan Papelbon, Mike Adams, and Antonio Bastardo.

Again, these are simply projections and should be looked at as one man's opinion. As we draw closer to spring training I'll review other projection sets and compare each.

- Patrick Gordon in managing editor of the Philadelphia Baseball Review. Follow him on Twitter @Philabaseball or e-mail him at pgordon@philadelphiabaseballreview.com 

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